SNGPT says it's negEV....

[tigerite]

Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

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Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance (edit: my estimate is 25%, given this is a $22) the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[Sykes]

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[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]


Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.

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[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]


Getting 3.3 to 1 on his money there is not a single hand he'd fold here, not even 32o and I'm willing to wager that his hand is a lot better than 32o (or other random junk) since BB is shortstacked (2xbb) and they're on the bubble. Honestly, I don't expect anything less than Ax+/K9+/QT+/22+.


I actually think it's correct to fold here, but I'd never do it. I'd call and hope BB calls also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just for the record, if he had 32o, and he put you on a pair he'd need ~5:1 pot odds. In reality, he is probably getting the odds he needs because he'd raise with a decent hand only.

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]

1) What's with the personal insults? I'm pretty sure that doesn't fly around here.

2) [ QUOTE ]
There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out".

[/ QUOTE ]

"Pretty good chance" of CO folding? lol. Are you even considering the times where the short stack (correctly) folds when you push, due not to pot odds but the fact that it's a huge boost in his equity? Or the fact that tigerite pointed out that a call was more likely to get the shorite to come along? I think the fact that the shortie called here is clouding your judgement of how often a shortie does actually call in this situation. Also the idea that we have "pretty good chance" of getting the CO to fold is silly.

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
Fold for t400 in a pot of a bazillion? Er, yeah. Okay then.

Hint: He ain't folding. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently you can spend over a year reading this forum and still be a jackass, I'm dissapointed.

You say he will never fold to a raise of 400 into a pot of 1710. He would be getting 3.3:1 pot odds. The big blind, calling the raise and call/push from you will be getting 5:1 pot odds.

-So first of all, based only on pot odds, the big blind is much more likely to call than the CO.
-Second of all, there is a decent chance (I'd estimate 25-50%) that the CO was trying to raise to isolate the BB who had random cards versus the CO's slightly better than random hands. Faced with a reraise from someone who would fold with anything but a monster (short stack putting his life on the line when another short stack is about to go out), even with the 3.3:1 pot odds, he might fold.
-Third, this is a $22, so neither player will probably look at pot odds. There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out". If he is a decent player he might call based on pot odds. If he is a good-great player, he might fold based on the fact you wouldn't raise without a monster.

Thanks for the "hint".

[/ QUOTE ]

1) What's with the personal insults? I'm pretty sure that doesn't fly around here.

2) [ QUOTE ]
There is a pretty good chance the CO is a donk, and he might say "oh, my steal didn't work, i'll let the Button knock this guy out".

[/ QUOTE ]

"Pretty good chance" of CO folding? lol. Are you even considering the times where the short stack (correctly) folds when you push, due not to pot odds but the fact that it's a huge boost in his equity? Or the fact that tigerite pointed out that a call was more likely to get the shorite to come along? I think the fact that the shortie called here is clouding your judgement of how often a shortie does actually call in this situation. Also the idea that we have "pretty good chance" of getting the CO to fold is silly.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Edited, sorry for the comment. I just thought it was dumb that someone was giving what seemed like a condescending "hint" to a new guy that wasn't correct.

2) Edited. When I said pretty good chance that raiser was a donk trying to steal and would fold, I meant around 25%.