Hand I played terribly

[mj12]

I 3 bet flop in a second to get a better picture of were im at and because I am most likely ahead and you have to charge them to try to catch, the raiser has a wide range most of which your ahead of but i am concerned about the cold caller, which could have u beat as often as he's chasing, so 3 bet to charge him/ define his hand

[DrewOnTilt]

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I'm putting UTG on a flush draw or a 5 once he donkbets the turn. Then again that hand range may be much too narrow. MP2 either has overcards or a mid PP as his stats imply he'll fastplay a made hand. So folding the river is may be a bad play.

As for where you played the hand badly I can only think of the flop then.

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The river is what I was getting at.

As soon as I pressed the call button I realized my mistake. I think this is a pretty clear raise. UTG can have a ton of hands, including a lot of pair+ straight draw combos. The fact that he limped UTG and he's unknown leads me to believe he sucks, even though it's not necessarily the case. On the river there's 12 bets in the pot when it gets to me, and I think I'm ahead of UTG a very good amount of the time. However, the way MP2 played it, I think he's got a pair better than mine a decent amount of the time, and he'll most likely fold it if I raise.

I haven't done the math on it, but my guess is that this is a clear raise.

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This has been a good thread on postflop play.

I will agree that a river raise might get MP2 to fold a higher pocket pair. But for the life of me I can't put UTG on anything that we beat.

What's his hand range? It would make more sense to C/R with trip fives, so maybe we can discount that hand. If he donked the turn with a heart flush draw, then he made his flush.

What are we putting him on here?

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You make some very good points here, and it looks like I need to rethink this river. I'm going to run some math while I'm at school today and come back to this thread later.

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I'm very interested in seeing the hand results.

Here's the hands that I can see UTG logically having:
Flopped straight that he intended to slowplay
77 or 66 played cautiously due to the coordinated flop. Then he comes alive when the board pairs
A5s
Weakly played overpairs JJ-TT

All of the above are based on the assumption that UTG is a semi-reasonable player. There is also the possibility that he is FOS, or that he holds a hand like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and doesn't realize that the paired 5 counterfitted his hand. If we feel that there is a good chance that either situation is the case, a raise may well be warranted. I'm still skeptical, though...we'd need to be right 1 time in 6.

[Jeff W]

Re: River

On the river, we receive 6.1:1 on a raise. To justify raising, 1/7.1 times we have to satisfy the parlay that UTG has a worse hand than 88 and MP2 folds.

Lets call the probability that UTG has a worse hand P(A) and MP2 folds P(B).

If P(A)*P(B)>1/7.1, then EV>0.

Plugging in some numbers:

If P(A)=.376 and P(B)=.376, then EV>0.
If P(A)=.5, then we need P(B)>.28 for EV>0.
If P(A)=.25, then we need P(B)>.56 for EV>0.

I don't know. It still looks close to me. I don't think I would raise in the heat of battle. MP2's WtSD over a decent sample size could swing my decision.

[Justin A]

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I'm very interested in seeing the hand results.

Here's the hands that I can see UTG logically having:
Flopped straight that he intended to slowplay
77 or 66 played cautiously due to the coordinated flop. Then he comes alive when the board pairs
A5s
Weakly played overpairs JJ-TT

All of the above are based on the assumption that UTG is a semi-reasonable player.

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I think that's an assumption that we shouldn't be making. There just aren't that many hands that a reasonable player will play like this. I just got a strong feeling when he bet the turn that he was a total donk and that I was likely ahead of him.

[Justin A]

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Re: River

On the river, we receive 6.1:1 on a raise. To justify raising, 1/7.1 times we have to satisfy the parlay that UTG has a worse hand than 88 and MP2 folds.

Lets call the probability that UTG has a worse hand P(A) and MP2 folds P(B).

If P(A)*P(B)>1/7.1, then EV>0.

Plugging in some numbers:

If P(A)=.376 and P(B)=.376, then EV>0.
If P(A)=.5, then we need P(B)>.28 for EV>0.
If P(A)=.25, then we need P(B)>.56 for EV>0.

I don't know. It still looks close to me. I don't think I would raise in the heat of battle. MP2's WtSD over a decent sample size could swing my decision.

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Jeff thanks for saving me the trouble, this is perfect. If I had to guess I'd say that P(A) is about 40%. So that means I need to get MP2 to fold more than 35% of the time that he has me beat. I think the way the hand played out and based on my read of MP2, we easily satisfy this with a raise. I think he folds here > 50% of the time.

Edit/ This really comes down to reads on each player after we see the math that Jeff did. The read I'm fairly sure of is that MP2 will fold most hands that beat mine here. I'm willing to hear other opinions on the read of the unknown UTG. At the time I just felt like my hand was better than his a good portion of the time.

[SeaEagle]

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I think he folds here > 50% of the time.


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I'm still having a hard time understanding where you come up with this number? What makes you think MP2 would fold an overpair here? What do you think he puts you on that he's not beating?

The fact that MP2 has position on us is very important here. Because of this, I would not 3-bet the flop. He most likely has a bigger pair. UTG's turn bet is VERY strange. It could be 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but I'm guessing it's a strong hand. I think it's a pretty bad play, considering he could have checked and one of you almost certainly would have bet. Regardless, I think UTG has at least a 5 and maybe more. You have shown strength, but he doesn't care. I would fold the turn and watch MP2 call down with his QQ.

[surfdoc]

I think that the preflop play and river play have been discussed at length but I haven't really seen much discussion regarding the flop. I just skimmed the entire thread and nobody at least mentioned a flop checkraise. You have excellent relative position to the pfr and I although I can see your desire to lead and have him raise to protect your hand I am not convinced this will help you in a raised pot.

With his ultratight stats he will also often only be raising you with a better hand and you really don't have any outs to clean up. (except maybe your 2 8s when someone folds their gutshot to a 9) I think a CR with the entire field trapped would be a reasonable play and if the pfr 3 bets you can be quite certain he doesn't have just overcards as it is really a rare player who 3 bets this flop with AK. You will also get the same protection if he 3 bets and all the fish caught in between will have to wonder if they are getting capped when it comes back to you. It will also be easy to get away from your hand if you miss.

Since nobody mentioned this line my guess is there is a flaw I am not seeing so feel free to explain why a flop lead is best.

[baronzeus]

i would raise the turn here...get it HU and bet the river. i honestly think MP2 has an overpair and if it's 99-JJ you can get him to fold most likely.

i dunno, utg's donkbet on the turn was awesome for you

[DrewOnTilt]

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I'm very interested in seeing the hand results.

Here's the hands that I can see UTG logically having:
Flopped straight that he intended to slowplay
77 or 66 played cautiously due to the coordinated flop. Then he comes alive when the board pairs
A5s
Weakly played overpairs JJ-TT

All of the above are based on the assumption that UTG is a semi-reasonable player.

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I think that's an assumption that we shouldn't be making. There just aren't that many hands that a reasonable player will play like this. I just got a strong feeling when he bet the turn that he was a total donk and that I was likely ahead of him.

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I assume, then, that UTG was indeed full of [censored], and that MP2 had you beat.

Man - trying to read this UTG nimrod is driving me nuts.