AKo hand - unexpected disaster

arkady · #1 03-31-2004, 12:23 PM

This is a hand early on in the session from last night, which certainly foreshadowed things to come. I am interested to see what people do on the turn.
Reads: Loony is not loose, but I think he overvalues hands, especially pre-flop, he (re)raises with a dizzying array of hands and I have no idea if its because he wants to thin the field or he thinks his hand is the best in the world. Anyway this hand I wanted to isolate, but apparently it didnt go as planned...

Absolute Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: SuperHero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 (LoonyToony) raises, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, SuperHero 3-bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 (LoonyToony) caps, SuperHero calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
LoonyToony bets, SuperHero raises, LoonyToony calls.

Turn: (6.66 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
LoonyToony checks, SuperHero bets, LoonyToony raises, SuperHero calls.

Here is the problem...am I beat here? I thought it was pretty obvious I had him on the flop, unless he might have been slow playing JJ or AJ? But why would he slow play AJ or even bet out with JJ. Anyway, I felt confident on the flop and by the turn I thought things changed...so i called him down.

River: (10.66 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
LoonyToony bets, SuperHero calls.

Final Pot: 12.66 BB

Mike Gallo · #2 03-31-2004, 12:49 PM

Here is the problem...am I beat here?

Your opponent has told you that by his actions.

He bet the flop, smooth called your raise and then check raised you on the turn.

But why would he slow play AJ or even bet out with JJ.

To confuse you, and it appears he had the desired you acted confused.

arkady · #3 03-31-2004, 01:02 PM

Mike, would you fold on the turn?

Mike Gallo · #4 03-31-2004, 01:14 PM

Mike, would you fold on the turn?

Tough question to answer. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

I have a thin draw against AJ and I am drawing dead to a set. If my opponent would play a flush draw like this then I cannot fold. Against an opponent who would play A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] like this I cannot fold.

Against a seat of the pants player I would call.

Next time do not bet the turn if you do not know your course of action if he check raises you. Always think one or two steps ahead.

Bob T. · #5 03-31-2004, 02:13 PM

Depending on the player, you could still be ahead. AT suited, AQ, TT, and maybe K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] if he is really aggressive preflop are all possibilities. You could also be chopping with AK. He might play KK, or QQ this way also, but that seems unlikely. The fact that you hold the Ace of spades, combined with the preflop action, makes it unlikely that he is semibluffing a flush draw, but I have been 4bet by KQ suited before, so that is a possibility also.

Additionally, if your opponent has AJ or some other two pair, you have 3-7 outs, but if he has two pair, it is most likely AJ, and you do have 3 outs. Against a set, or QT which is unlikely, but possible given your description of him, you are drawing dead.

When he raises you on the turn, if you have to call a turn and river bet, the pot is laying you 10.66 to 2. Because of his preflop play, there is some doubt about whether or not your hand is good, but do you think that you will win here, 15% of the time?

It comes down to how many of those hands would he 4bet with preflop, and how tricky does he play postflop. With some players, you could be virtually certain that they were going to showdown AA here, and against others, you could see many of the hands that I mentioned above.

Depending on what you know about the player, it is somewhere between an easy fold, and a call.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

Bob T. · #6 03-31-2004, 02:20 PM

Arkady had the Ace of spades in his hand.

arkady · #7 03-31-2004, 02:25 PM

Thanks for the reply guys, I now understand that regardless of the outcome he was telling me I was beat. Even though as it turns out I was beat a bit later that some of you suspected...but the action to fold should have been clear.

To my dismay the opponent showed 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and took the pot.

Bob T. · #8 03-31-2004, 02:44 PM

Ouch.

I think paying him off might have been worth it here. You can suspect that he has read Phil Helmuth's book, and is going to play his middle pairs strongly, and show them down, regardless of the board. When you have top pair, or a high second pair against him, you can value bet him relentlessly.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

arkady · #9 03-31-2004, 02:56 PM

Bob,

So I guess they are going to see their pairs until the river, then fold if they dont catch their set. So I'll be making 1 BB extra if he misses, yet losing 3 BBs everytime he makes one...and presumably that should only happen like 1 times in 20, heh why not [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Bob T. · #10 03-31-2004, 02:58 PM

They probably call the river unimproved, also. But they will make their set more like one out of 12 times, because they drew two cards to it.