|
|
#11
07-28-2005, 02:09 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Raise or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not as worried about villain's hand in the sense that I have no good reason to think that he has anything more than a pair (probably Jx or something). Let me be more specific... how many outs do we assign to hero's hand... Kool Aid thinks 4. Anyone else? I'm leaning more towards 5 (~ .5 out for BDSD when KQ comes). [/ QUOTE ] i feel like a situation like this is often dependant on the table and players. raising to clean up outs only works if people are going to fold behind us, we dont get 3bet, and we maybe get a free turn card. i dont think we can count on any of that here. folding when we connect w/ a flop seems sily to me, because while there is a threat of a straight, it is a rainbow flop so we are safe in that regard. i would give our hand nearly the entire 5 it's worth, plus about .5 for BDSD. I think we can call here, hope for overcalls, and fold the turn UI since our hand is rarely, if ever, good UI. 
|
|
#14
07-28-2005, 06:09 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Raise or Fold?
what range of hands do you think UTG has that would bet this flop? and based on that, how many outs do you have?
i haven't heard any of this in the discussion and yet it must be done or how can you just throw around "I have this many outs", "i need to clean up my Aces"...blah blah blah. how do you think we can make a decision without reads? are you basing your answers to other's opinions based on the results or what? clean up our Ace outs- why? AT and AJ are doubtful to fold, any lone K or Q should fold having ~4.5 outs needing ~11:1 to call profitably, so folding them is of no consequence even if they suckout on us. same with pocket pairs, so calling is an option, and the pot is small, why do people feel the need to be aggressive here? Raising: well you've got it HU in a hand with a small pot where against a villain's range of hands EP that would bet this pot, you're a serious underdog- oh and you played this hand also because of it's flush strength and there are NO flush redraws for you. though you may have won this hand this time, in the long run, you'll lose it ~65% of the time HU, so in all actuallity your options look better like this: folding > calling > raising. ps: there is no way to count how many outs you have exactly since he could have KQ, AJ, AT and your Aces are no good. so trying to squeeze in an extra .5 for your 2-gapper (not a BDSD) is pointless, for it doesn't move you from one option to the other enough to make a change.
|
|
#16
07-28-2005, 10:29 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Raise or Fold?
I did fold here, but I'm not sure it was the right decision. Oddly enough I disagree with a fair amount of the posts so far.
A raise would be to fold a K or Q among other hands. I don't put the bettor on AT or AJ, I think Jx is much more likely. I think I have 5 clean outs to a winner (including the BDSD). Break-even odds on the flop for a 5 outter are 8.2-1 and I'm getting 7-1, but I think I'm getting much better implied odds here (esp when I hit a 6 or BDSD). HU I don't mind calling, but with 4 players in the hand and the bet coming from my immediate right, I think I have to raise or fold. I'm definitely leaning towards folding, but I think it's a lot closer than what some are saying. Anyone else?
|
|
#18
07-28-2005, 10:36 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Raise or Fold?
why do you want a K/Q/other pair to fold? they're making a mistake calling anyways unless they have the T or J, which i seriously doubt you're folding. since they are drawing thin, keeping them around is a mistake on their part even if they suck out on you
i think 5 outs is being generous given the number of times you'll be up against AJ/T and you do not have a BDSD, you have a 2 gapper gutshot, which is next to worthless as the pot is small and you'll most likely split it anyways. what i think is closer is calling and folding, while raising is a distant 3rd.
|
|
#19
07-28-2005, 10:45 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Raise or Fold?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Raising might clean up your A outs by forcing others to fold. [/ QUOTE ] Huh? How will a raise clean up his A outs? [/ QUOTE ] I'm just explaining the concept - not advocating the use here.
|
|
#20
07-28-2005, 11:15 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Raise or Fold?
I realize that this is close call with immediate pot odds, but what about implied odds? If we hit 2 pair or trips, we'll probably be able to extract a BB or maybe even two on the turn right?
This is actually a concept I'm a little unsure about - using implied odds on marginal draws.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
