AA gets C/R'd on the turn -- what to do?

[JimRivett]

Hello jtr,

Before I comment on the turn c/r, I'd like to mention something which happened pre-flop which is very rarely encountered. The action of the utg player who limped in and then folded to your pre-flop raise, is something which is not seen very often, I'd be inclined to make a note of that on his player notes.

As to the way you played the hand, I'd play it the same way, remember the s/b called your pre-flop raise, bet into you on the flop, and after you raised again, he now check raises the turn. He has 2 pair, or better! I'd call the the turn check raise and call his river bet, expecting to be shown a better hand.

Regards, Jim

[jtr]

[ QUOTE ]
Before I comment on the turn c/r, I'd like to mention something which happened pre-flop which is very rarely encountered. The action of the utg player who limped in and then folded to your pre-flop raise, is something which is not seen very often, I'd be inclined to make a note of that on his player notes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well spotted Jim. I remember thinking that was weird at the time, but by the time I'd come to post the hand I'd forgotten this detail. Good idea to make a note -- looking at other stats on this guy, he had a VPIP of 55, a PFR of 2, and very low postflop aggression, except for a sudden tendency to bet the river. Really intriguing that someone who sees value in 55% of their cards would drop them when it was one bet back to them to see a flop.

Thanks for your additional comments also. You're right, all signs point to someone who is not kidding around.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone consider raising the river here? I hate getting 3-bet, but I'd like to earn an extra bet when KJ is out there. Are 66/77 hands to worry about often enough to make raising the river -EV?

[/ QUOTE ]
One consideration is that he saw the river card and yet he is still betting.

After you count up all of his possible hands, you need to take a discount because he might check when the six ruins his hand, whereas he'll never check if he's filled up.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Really intriguing that someone who sees value in 55% of their cards would drop them when it was one bet back to them to see a flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
It happens with some frequency. I always make a note when I see it.

The common wisdom is that folding for one more bet is always a mistake. This is true if you had any business calling in the first place. But for a player with 55% PFR, calling a raise will often be a second mistake.

Note that it can be correct for SB to complete and then fold when the BB raises. Correctly putting 1/2 or 1/3 SB in does not mean you should always put another 1 SB in when you get raised.

Complete-folding the SB is often a sign of competence.

[elindauer]

This looks like exactly KJ to me. Most players would play AK more aggressively. KQ doesn't usually check-raise. There aren't that many other ways reasonable ways for him to play his hand this way.

In light of this, call the turn, and make the thin value raise on the river. Sometimes you'll run into a set of sevens, but most of the time, you win.


Good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
After you count up all of his possible hands, you need to take a discount because he might check when the six ruins his hand, whereas he'll never check if he's filled up.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no reason for the villain to put hero on exactly AA. He'll almost certainly continue firing with KJ.

my 2 cents.
Eric

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
After you count up all of his possible hands, you need to take a discount because he might check when the six ruins his hand, whereas he'll never check if he's filled up.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's no reason for the villain to put hero on exactly AA. He'll almost certainly continue firing with KJ.

[/ QUOTE ]
If that's his hand I agree. But J7 is now losing to AK, KQ, and QQ as well.

The main point of my post was simply the concept that betting the river means something. It doesn't prove anything, but it is a factor to consider.

I don't really buy the idea that the king must have improved his hand. You will often find that he flopped the goods and called the flop already intending to checkraise the turn. As the results show, that actually happened.

[doughhater]

I really believe that if your are planning on calling this one down to the river, then you should 3 bet this turn with the intent of checking on the river unless you improve. You put the same amount of money into the pot, but you do it when your hand still has live outs, and when you do improve, you make an extra bet on the river. With that turn card, it is extremely unlikely that you will be 4 bet, even on Party, but when you are, you can safely fold your one pair. This will be an unpopular opinion, but I'm sure that it is the correct one.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
when you do improve, you make an extra bet on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's very unlikely. If you call he will bet the river and you can raise with an ace, gaining 2BB. If you 3-bet the turn he will check the river and you can bet your ace, gaining 1BB on the turn and 1BB on the river. Your play doesn't accomplish anything.

Now it is true that if you call the turn he might be afraid to bet the river when an ace comes. Then you would gain a BB. Unfortunately, if he checks the river every time a scary river card hits, your free showdown play will cause serious losses. You end up prepaying on the turn for many losing showdowns that would have been free anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
With that turn card, it is extremely unlikely that you will be 4 bet, even on Party, but when you are, you can safely fold your one pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
When he has a set and caps you, you must fold but there is nothing remotely safe about it. Losing your two outs to an ace costs you EV = 1/2 BB. That's a terrible price to pay for making this play.

[DyessMan89]

I dont know, I would probobly call him down.

EDIT: Pocket Jacks? And he didnt 3-bet the flop? Hmmmmm.