Sit and Go Big Bluff

[tewall]

In "The Big Book of Bluffs" the author gives the following example of an on-line sit and go bluff.

Mark has a chip lead of 2000. Tony has been catching up, up to 1600 now, because noone has been standing up to his aggression. Mark decides to take a stand.

The blinds are 25/50 (with Mark in the BB), and Tony raises to 600. Mark calls. Regardless of the flop, Mark moves all-in.

The author states that this option is better than just re-raising pre-flop because it's less likely Mark will get called. He states this is a good bluff when it's 1600 to win 1200, but would be bad if it were 1600 to win 600.

Ok, a couple of questions. First of all, it seems to me that Tony's strategy is terrible. Why not let someone else take Mark on?

Secondly, and more importantly, as this is my main question, is it indeed true that the stop and go is better than an immediate re-raise? In what situations would the sit and go and better than an immediate re-raise?

Thirdly, the statement that it's not worth risking 1600 to win 600 seems wrong to me. If it's OK to go all-in with 10xBB with not very good hands because of fold equity, surely betting 1600 to 600 must be at least as +EV.

At any rate, the second question is the one I'm most interested in. When is sit and go better than just re-raising?

[11t]

An immediate re-raise is more advantageous the broader his raising range you have dominated. A stop and go is superior the broader his range that you are racing against.

Villain pot committed himself by raising such a large % of his stack PF and is not folding, so if you have a hand that is marginally better than his but could be racing against a large % of hands he is raising 6xbb with (and sure to call your push with) than a stop and go might get him to fold some hands that either have you beat or are a marginal favorite against on the flop.

For example, lets say villain raised with JJ here and has Hero dominated. A stop and go in this position might get him to fold if a K or A flops. Also if he has a hand like AK and you do not want to race (some sort of bubble scenario) than a stop and go only allows him to see 3 cards instead of 5 and will (theoretically) decrease variance as long as you don't push into him when he hits the flop 33% of the time.

[david050173]

We are missing some details (how many players, payout, and blind structure) but in general bluffing here is crazy (almost as crazy as raising x12bb). You have time to wait for a good hand to put your chips in with.

[tewall]

The blind structure sounded like Party. I don't think he said how many players there were. I agree that both Mark and Tony's strategies look bizarre. But I'm very curious about being able to determine when stop and go is better than just pushing for a re-steal (when you have junk). From what 11t wrote, it sounds like it's better to re-push when you think you're ahead and stop and go when you think you're behind.

It's not quite that simple. If you think that pushing the flop will get you opponent to fold a hand that you don't want to go to the river with, you're better off. You're forcing him to make a tougher decision (let's say AK on a 2 8 J board) than just putting all his money in preflop with a hand he's comfortable doing that with.

[RiverDood]

VALUABLE CONTRIBUTION: For anyone seriously interested in stop-n-gos, go explore the archives and look for posts by Greg Raymer (fossilman) on this topic, from back in 2003 or 2004. He's made a lot more money with stop-n-gos than any of us.

NOT SO VALUABLE CONTRIBUTION: 11t's posting covers the key strategic concept just fine. I've applied that mostly by trying stop-n-gos with small/mid-PPs, when I'm the smaller stack and I think I'm up against overcards or a slightly bigger PP.

Classic case: I've got T1300 or so in an MTT where the blinds are 50/100 and the average stack is T2000+. I now post in the BB, pick up 55, and see some guy in MP has raised to T500. All fold to me.

No one is playing very tight, so I'm assuming he's got A9+, or maybe a bigger PP. I'd like to play this hand, figuring I've got a 45%-50% chance against his likely range and there's enough dead money in the pot to justify being in. But I've got no reason to think I'm the favorite, and no reason to think he'll fold if I push. I have essentially zero folding equity.

So I'd like to see if there's a way to take down the pot fast without letting him keep drawing on the turn and river.

I call the preflop bet and push right away on the flop. It's Q62. The guy agonizes. The flop hasn't helped him a bit, and the Q overcard worries him. Heck, maybe he thinks I hit a set. I'm convinced he would have folded 77-99, as well as any Ax or any two Broadway cards that didn't include a Q.

The actual outcome turned out to be a fluky -- and strategically irrelevant -- bit of good fortune for me. He finally called and turned over JJ. I caught a 5 on the river and doubled up. For those particular cards, I'd have come out in the same place if I had pushed. But as the example shows, I also improved my chances of picking up some pots that I might not have been entitled to otherwise.