$1500 NL hand from the Borgata Open

[Tyler Durden]

This hand created a lot of discussion at the table and amongst my buddies.

We started w/ 5k and after two levels (25-50, 50-100) I was up to 6550.

Blinds are 75/150. It seems I have an aggressive image but I'm trying to control it so I don't get reraised in poor spots. Here's a setup hand:

W/ about 5500 I make it 400 second to act. I have 77. Folds to the BB who is new to the table. He makes it 1400 to go. I thought he was pretty weak w/ the way he was staring me down and I was prepared to make a play if the flop was non-threatening. I call, leaving myself w/ about 4k.

Flop is QQT w/ a flush draw. I check behind. Turn bricked, same action. River also bricked and I checked behind. HHWG w/ 88. I should have known to bet the turn b/c he's prob not checking a strong hand twice there and seemed content to check it all the way down, but for some reason I sped through the hand and didn't realize that.

So here's the hand that I'm interested in getting thoughts on.

I have JT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the 150 BB and about 3800 after posting. Older guy is third to act and he minraises to 300. He has a good stack and has been playing pretty well. He gets two coldcallers, the second of which also has a good stack and is also playing well. The SB folds and I call the 150 more.

Flop is 975 rainbow w/ one[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I check, the PFR throws in a single 500 chip, the first coldcaller folds and the kid w/ the big stack calls. I tank for about 90 seconds and move in for 3350 more. The reasons I did this are here:

The PFR seemed very weak, physically that is, and also he bet 500 into a pot of over 1200. So I then focused on the caller, who had been active and was a smart player. I thought he would raise here w/ a strong hand. Also, I can pick up over 2200 in dead money here if they fold, and increase my stack by more than 50%.

So, what does everyone think? thanks in advance.

I admire the courage and sometimes i believe you need to take calculated risks to win tournaments. If you get the wrong read and he happens to have a big hand, you arent completely dead. secondly, i like your analysis on the play. If he is a decent player like you say he is then he will know you are as well and hopefully give you credit and fold. The player who called the flop could have called with a wide variety of hands and will most likely fold top pair to the all in bet. He has to figure that after you move in after a bet and a call that he knows that you know he has top pair and you are still betting your stack implying that his hand is no good. I like your play ... how did it turn out? were you right?

[2005]

I like it, but I think I would like it more if you acted faster. I'm not saying immediately, but if you thought for about 25 seconds it would look a little better I think. When someone tanks that long against me and then moves in, barring any physical read of strenth, I tend to call with a wider range of hands. I think you have 7-10 outs if called, and plenty of FE, so I like it.

[asofel]

The JT hand is a fairly standard squeeze play, right? You make a strong move and given your stack size and the pots size, its not a huge overbet, which looks good. I would think they could put you on something good but that doesn't necessarily want to see any more cards. You obviously don't have a monster...the good players might be able to read your aggressive nature and push as either a bluff or maybe having some piece of the flop but pushing as a semi-bluff of sorts. I wish you had more outs than the gutshot and backdoor...I would think this move often takes it down, but in the times it doesn't, you're done...also, the timing issue of tanking then pushing...i don't know, that doesn't feel right...

[bigmiiiiike]

I actually don't think I like the play that much. You are up against two opponents that you claim are pretty decent, and I think you make this play without too much of a read on either of them. If you had really strong reads on both, I'd like it, but at least from what you've written I don't think that is the case.

The old guy who minraised, and then made a weak bet could have AA, 99 or KQ off.

The flop caller is the hand that would really scare me. By raising, you will only move him off of a hand like A9 or 88 here imo, but for some reason I feel like he is trapping with a set here.

I guess what I'm really trying to say, is that it seems like too much has to go your way here, and you don't have enough info to make this the best possible play at this point. I know there is a lot of dead money out there, but unless you really had great reads here I would probably just fold and move on to the next hand. I think you could make a similar semibluff in a better spot at some point in the near future.

I don't like it a whole lot. Even though you are down in chips a tad, you're still in okay position relative to the blinds and will be able to see more hands down the road in which you can find a better spot, especially since you hinted that the other two players are fairly solid. It was a gutsy play though.

[Exitonly]

alright i'm going to try doing this w/ math, but i've never done it before, and the numbers i'm coming up with just look really wrong, but maybe it'll make someone correct it and show me how to correctly do the math.

---

Old Guy's range: 77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs. (196 Combinations)
Range if he calls push:77,99+ (84 Combinations)

Younger guys range: 55-TT, AJs-AQs, AJo-AQo (104 combinations)
Range if Old folds, and he calls:
55,77,99,TT (48 combinations)
Range if Old calls, and he calls:
55,77,99 (36 combinations)

So... Just old guy calls you 42% of the time, just the young guy 26% of the time... and both 14% of the time.

A) So you win uncontested 32% of the time for +2200.
--
B) If just the old guy calls you're 22.7 to win 5825 (1322)
and 77.3 to lose 3350(-2589)
For -1267.
--
C) If just the youung guy calls you're 21.4 to win 5825 (1246) and 78.6 to lose 3350(-2633)
for -1387
--
D) If both call you're 17.6 to win 9175 (1614), and 82.4 to lose 3350 (-2760)
for -1146
---
so .32*2200+.42(-1267)+.26(-1387)+.14(-1146) = -349


So... with those ranges, this is bad.

But old guy could be expanded to T9s, JTs, QJs, KJs.. i just went with a tightish range.


So how was that? terrible?

[daryn]

i don't dig it. you probably drew out on his overpair yes?

[Copernicus]

I dont like this play, especially if the kid has a stack of 20k+.

Assuming Youre only called if behind, you need to draw with at most 10 outs, probably more like 7, but lets say youve got 40% chance of winning if called by one player. What folding percentage you need for this to be a break even move?

You need both players to fold 40% of the time, or 63% each. Does each one of these players fold 2 out of 3 times? They have big stacks and are getting about 1.85/1 odds..ie they only need to perceive a 35% chance of winning to make this call... and that only makes it a break even deal

I dont think you have the FE for this play. I think the kid has to have anticipated a move from you to call the 500 and is ready to play it out.

[ QUOTE ]
alright i'm going to try doing this w/ math, but i've never done it before, and the numbers i'm coming up with just look really wrong, but maybe it'll make someone correct it and show me how to correctly do the math.

---

Old Guy's range: 77+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs. (196 Combinations)
Range if he calls push:77,99+ (84 Combinations)

Younger guys range: 55-TT, AJs-AQs, AJo-AQo (104 combinations)
Range if Old folds, and he calls:
55,77,99,TT (48 combinations)
Range if Old calls, and he calls:
55,77,99 (36 combinations)

So... Just old guy calls you 42% of the time, just the young guy 26% of the time... and both 14% of the time.

A) So you win uncontested 32% of the time for +2200.
--
B) If just the old guy calls you're 22.7 to win 5825 (1322)
and 77.3 to lose 3350(-2589)
For -1267.
--
C) If just the youung guy calls you're 21.4 to win 5825 (1246) and 78.6 to lose 3350(-2633)
for -1387
--
D) If both call you're 17.6 to win 9175 (1614), and 82.4 to lose 3350 (-2760)
for -1146
---
so .32*2200+.42(-1267)+.26(-1387)+.14(-1146) = -349


So... with those ranges, this is bad.

But old guy could be expanded to T9s, JTs, QJs, KJs.. i just went with a tightish range.


So how was that? terrible?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't check the whole thing closely. However, I think you made the mistake of P(only second guy calls) = P(second guy calls given that old guy has folded). You want P(only second guy calls) = P(old guy folds)*P(second guy calls given that old guy has folded). This should help a little.