Hand from the Borgata Open Warmup

[slickpoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
Consider this a Part One post.

This tourney was $1,000+80. 10k chips to start, 40 minute levels. Blinds start at 25-50.

Level 3, 75-150. I have about 8k (cold cards, too bad b/c I was looking to splash around early on). My image is probably tight and I think it looks like I know what I'm doing even tho I've won only one pot.

Villain in this hand seems to be at least decent and is a thinking player. At the time I thought he was pretty good. We've been involved in one hand prior to this. He limped for 50 in EP, I raised to 175 in LP w/ AJ and we were heads up. Flop was QTx, he checked, I bet 250, he minraised and I called. Turn was a Jack and I folded when he bet 1500, tho I briefly considered raising (he didn't seem to like that turn card) to represent AK.

On to the hand. It folds to him in LP and he raises to 450. He had about 6500 to start the hand (I had 8k). He raised when it was folded to him on the prior hand.

I have AQ in the BB and raise it 1100 more. He calls. About 3300 in the pot.

Flop is A96 rainbow.

Can a reasonable argument be made for checking, and would you actually do that in the heat of the moment?

thanks much.

Rest of the hand to follow.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, I don't like the preflop reraise because it is unlikely to make him fold and you'll be out of position. Judging from your description of him and the previous hand, he doesn't seem tight enough for there to be a high probability of him folding. By reraising, you create a big pot out of position against an at least decent opponent.

Anyway, given the PF reraise, I think checking the flop might be okay if you think there is a high enough probability of him betting KK-TT. But, as others have mentioned, a flop check is unlikely to induce a bluff in this situation because you showed so much preflop strength. Another problem with checking the flop is that if he bets and you reraise, you don't give yourself a chance to get away from the hand if he has AK or a set. By betting out 1500ish, you at least give yourself a chance to get away from the hand if he moves in.

So by checking the flop and reraising the flop all-in (I assume thats the plan) you have a small chance of getting an extra 1500ish, or small chance of losing ~5500. And theres also the chance that by checking you let him catch a two outer.

So I think I prefer betting out here. I would only check if the villain is particularly aggressive, which doesnt appear to be true in this case.

If you think that he might be aggresive enough to bet your check on this flop, why not bet out 1100 or so to look weak? He could easily reraise you with a number of hands, as you've said you have a tight image and could likely have JJ-KK to reraise him preflop. This gets much more money off him than a check/raise. The downside of course is that your commiting your stack if you do this, and any AK or set takes you out. Still, theres a very large pot sitting there right now, and like you said he doesnt need AK to raise preflop. Discounting that, I think the only reasonable hand he could call you with preflop is a set on this flop. I'd be fairly comfortable putting my stack at risk here, and I think betting about 1100 should get you the max amount money off a hand that you can beat.
PS another advantage to this play is that you get hands like 77 to either fold, or go allin with you.

[Tyler Durden]

Part II

A96r.

I bet 1500 into 3300 w/ AQ. He moves in for 4100 more. If I call and lose I have less than 2k.

What now?

Please read my description of the player before replying.

thanks much

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can a reasonable argument be made for checking, and would you actually do that in the heat of the moment?

[/ QUOTE ]

I could and would all the time. You lose your stack to AK that way, but since the pot is now 2.5K and you're gonna have to bet at least 1500, you probably lose it to him anyhow.

Every other realistic hand has ~2 outs, so let him bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Wes ManTooth]

The only hand that would make sense that he has that he would push with. (that has you beat) is AK. It seems from the information that you provided he would not push with a set.

What hands do you think he has?
but also what possible hands to you think he has you on?

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
well, I don't like the rr. now that the pot's 2200 or so I want to extract what I can and checking looks like the best way since it's WA/WB. probably time to read responses now but betting and getting raised doesn't feel right here.

[/ QUOTE ]

My reraise here preflop is automatic, and I think a must.

Against a LP raise, I'm reraising liberally. Many players HATE to dump a hand preflop once they've raised, they take it as some mark of weakness, so they're willing to call the reraise when way behind. They may fold to the flop bet, so the extra chips you got preflop is all you may get from them. AND...the bigger pot may convince them to continue with a marginal hand (like 2nd pair or some gut shot) when they're way behind.

Also, they will call and fold to a LOT of flops once you've shown the added aggression of the reraise and a continuation bet (regardless of if you've hit the flop). Remember your opponent misses the flop more than 3/4 of the time, so your reraise and flop bet will get him to dump a lot of hands allowing you to scoop unimproved and when possibly behingd to small pairs when mid/high cards come over his holding.

Also what do you do when you smoothcall and the flop misses you? This is a much tougher spot to figure out where you're at in the hand, making your correct play much more difficult to ascertain.

Overall, I think the raise increases the opportunities to make correct decisions and increases the chance you win the pot, which is the main goal.

Oh and if my opponent is aggressive I like the check. If not that aggressive I like betting out more.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

He just pushed you around in a previous hand.

He probably thinks he can get you do lay down anything but a monster here, and your bet might look weak to him.

I think I call here and expect to scoop this pot well more than 50%, which makes the call a +Equity move.

-Scott

[ekky]

[ QUOTE ]
Remember your opponent misses the flop more than 3/4 of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

you might want to clarify this point, because on first glance it looks like you mean he doesn't pair-up on the flop more then 75% of the time, and this is clearly incorrect.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Remember your opponent misses the flop more than 3/4 of the time

[/ QUOTE ]

you might want to clarify this point, because on first glance it looks like you mean he doesn't pair-up on the flop more then 75% of the time, and this is clearly incorrect.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it is correct. With two unpaired cards you fail to flop a pair this frequently. Or is is 2/3 of the time?

-Scott

[ekky]

you flop a pair or better 32% of the time, and you flop a pair only 29% of the time.

Most times its relevant to use the pair or better.. so you generally assume the flop helped your opponents unpaired pre-flop hand 1 out of every 3 hands.. or 2/1

The diff between this and 25% is pretty big over the course of multiple trials