Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Tournament Poker > One-table Tournaments

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #11  
Old 12-16-2005, 05:29 AM
bones bones is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 56
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

[ QUOTE ]

I almost never flat call in spots like this, but this might be an exception. Wuoldnt yell at you for folding or moving allin. Hey why dont you just do the math for allin, it cant be that complicated. Put him on a range (calculate chances of people behind you having AA-QQ also), and figure it out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Meanwhile Ill sit here and learn from your results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow us disagreeing on a line doesn't surprise me.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 12-16-2005, 05:29 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

I can do that. Well, I'll try to anyway, only via ICM not chipEV.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 12-16-2005, 05:31 AM
curtains curtains is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 240
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I almost never flat call in spots like this, but this might be an exception. Wuoldnt yell at you for folding or moving allin. Hey why dont you just do the math for allin, it cant be that complicated. Put him on a range (calculate chances of people behind you having AA-QQ also), and figure it out [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Meanwhile Ill sit here and learn from your results.

[/ QUOTE ]

Somehow us disagreeing on a line doesn't surprise me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly I don't know the answer....thats why I want ilya to do the math based on certain UTG ranges. It should be relatively simple if he cares about the right play and makes a few assumptions. I think its a pretty important spot to know exactly what to do. Just saying to move allin is too lazy of me to accept without donig any math.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 12-16-2005, 05:34 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

Right if he calls every time you need a 55.9% winrate which means he's raising 77+,AJo+,ATs+. Straight off the bat this seems more than reasonable anyway. In fact that's even wanting a ridiculously big edge.
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 12-16-2005, 05:42 AM
curtains curtains is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 240
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

But ok hes not calling every time? Lets assume he calls only with AK stuff and AA-QQ, just out of curiosity....If thats +EV we dont need to move on. Lets also assume a range of 99-AA and AJ+
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 12-16-2005, 05:43 AM
45suited 45suited is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: up to the 22s and 33s!
Posts: 1,395
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

Take this for what it's worth from someone who plays the 33s and below:

The simplest answer is that I can't see folding here and calling and pricing in further callers, possibly to give up the best hand post flop is not attractive either.

IMO, you have a ton of FE by pushing. I don't know if this is true for the 55s but I've been noticing alot more of this mini-raising crap from UTG starting on level 3 recently. His range is WAY looser than you are giving him credit for, I believe.

As for pushing and running into QQ+ behind you, I think that's just a chance you have to take. Stuff happens.

In this spot, pushing JJ is almost automatic for me against a mini-raise. (Of course I have to again place the disclaimer that I play 33s and below. But judging from some of the hands I've seen posted, I don't think that my guess that we are often way ahead of UTG even in a 55 is way off.)
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 12-16-2005, 05:45 AM
curtains curtains is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 240
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

Yes I agree his range is probably looser, I just want to do the calculation based on the tightest humanly possible range and see what the EV is for that. If its still slightly +EV then we know its huge EV against a normal range.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 12-16-2005, 05:52 AM
curtains curtains is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2003
Posts: 240
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

Cmon someone do the exact math for us! I know you are all huge math wizards!! It can't be that hard and it should help us learn a lot and use in similar situations!! Dont discount overpair behind us though. Someone behind us will have AK+ or QQ+ about 15% of the time, which is signifigant enough to be counted in any equation. (about 8.5% of the time they will have QQ+)
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 12-16-2005, 06:25 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

Well the problem is when he folds his range has to be looser because if we assume he folds the bottom % of that the chips we gain when he folds aren't worth that much to us.

I tried it but came up with some very weird answers so I have to check my working again.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 12-16-2005, 06:36 AM
tigerite tigerite is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 360
Default Re: ($55) Awkward spot with JJ preflop

Working out when someone behind calls is really hard because it depends on who calls, the ICM afterwards will be different for each person? Plus what about those who call with 99,TT and even worse such as Gurdy (possibly), PlynWitMyPP (more likely) ?
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:13 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.