Curtains Hand#AfternoonSnack: JJ in a multiway raised bubble pot

[ilya]

Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 3: A ( $2640 )
Seat 8: HERO ( $1210 )
Seat 10: B( $5125 )
Seat 6: C ( $1025 )

Level:6
Blinds(100/200)

Dealt to HERO [ Jh Jc ]

A raises [400].
C calls [400].

HERO....?

[durron597]

Push, you have Jacks. I am basically never folding AA-JJ on the bubble no matter what unless the stacks are totally bizarre.

edit: and if u can be on 2+2 u can be on AIM, foo

[Shillx]

Shove. It is hard to say what kind of equity you will have if you fold, but the upper bound on your winning % if you push and always get called is 57.5%. Anything more then this and it will certainly be +EV (and it might not need to be this high).

He would have to be raising pretty tight to turn this into a fold. Add in the rare times that he folds to the push or player C does something dumb and overcalls and it becomes a pretty clear push to me.

[bluefeet]

UTG minraising like that into bigstack? Strange.
Button calling off 40% of his stack? Odd.

I'd like to think that if you push over, UTG would quickly fold to avoid a 3-way figuring shortie was too
committed to get away. Certainly giving you credit for doing so behind the opening+call/in front of bigstack.

And there are just too many chips in the pot for shortie-Button to simply call here - GOTTA be
a weaker player. Even AA knows better than to let this thing get 3-way with bigstack behind. The same guy
that is reluctant to push over UTG might conceivably fold to our Hero's push.

UTG's min? Who knows. Just as likely a strong Ace, fearful off committing to much with biggie in the BB. I would have to have a pretty complelling reason to believe otherwise.

I push.

[pineapple888]

No reads?

Shove cause 1.)I get third unless shorty beats both of us, 2.) I'm getting close to desperate myself, and 3.)if I beat them both, I'm stylin.

I'm willing to take the chance that there's something really tricky going on with the weird min-raise and call.

[schwza]

i push. if A calls, that's not so bad because he'll have a wide raising range and decently wide calling range. also, if A calls, B folds anything but QQ+. and why would B have QQ+? he should push that to get all the chips in while he's massively ahead of B's range. (of course, there's no hand that i like the cold call from, so it's hard to put B on a range).

so one likely result is that A calls and B folds. in that case, A will usually have one under and one over. i think that then we're marginally happy that we pushed instead of folded (no math, just my guess).

another likely result is that A folds his bad hand and we get to play against B, who is probably not a big pair. that's very good for us.

i'd fold TT though. the odds start looking too good that we'd play a coinflip with A, which (i think) would be very detrimental.

I actually like a fold here but im an idiot.

[11t]

Sigh this spot sucks. If you push A is very likely to call, then if C mucks or calls you might either be racing versus A, or if he calls racing against some combination of overcards. Do to your stack size a side pot from this hand is going to be ~400. Winning that is somewhat meaningless so you want a hand that can win the pot outright. I think this might be a muck.

Calling to see a flop though might have some merit however I disdain calling off 1/5th of my remaining stack to "see a flop" especially since you are going to see over cards like 45-50% of the time.

This all depends on what you think A's raising range is, and C is calling off such a substantial % of his stack with since if you push you are probably going to be racing against them both. This could be a muck I guess.

FWIW when I am multi tabling and saw this in front of me I would just push and not think twice about it and be slightly upset when I busted out in 4th. I just don't fold JJ that often with 6xbb.

[bluefeet]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to think that if you push over, UTG would quickly fold to avoid a 3-way figuring shortie was too
committed to get away.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh...600 more to call, pot @ 2200..."quickly" probably isn't the best choice of words. But I think he can fold here. Hero has showed considerable strength, in or out of the hand, he has essentially ensured placing. I think we stand a decent chance at getting HU vs. Button - still a REMOTE chance of not seeing a flop (calling off 40% of stack, blah!).

[curtains]

Folding is really bad in my book. It's between pushing or doing some weird exotic play, like calling or making some smaller min raise to somehow suck in the button.

In any case I was too confused and short of time and playing other games, so I just went allin, which obviously isnt a terrible play. The original raisers raise could be seen as weakness, as they may have min raised so that they could fold to action from the big stack.

Of course they had AA and I was out in 4th [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]