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#31
12-23-2005, 10:56 AM
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Re: I think I finally learning
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I still don't get why everyone is ignoring the turn. Just because a river bet is +EV in and of itself, that doesn't mean that turn + river is good. It's way more interesting when you analyze the whole hand than when you come out and say [ QUOTE ] Betting the river only needs to fold Ax here > 13% of the time to be +EV. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] I do agree with you about the turn, colin; it seems like once we bet the turn, we should bet the river but the turn/river as a whole may be -EV. The problem, IMO, is that if we continue we're obviously going to need to invest 2BB to win UI a good majority of the time here. If we're going to try to push him off the pot, it seems like bet-bet is the only possible way to do it. So does he fold/do we improve beyond him >1 time in 3? Assuming our king/queen outs usually hold up, in other words does he have and fold a better hand >1 time in ~4? I don't play 3/6 so I don't know how a typical opponent would play; I'd say at lower levels, an average player isn't folding 1 time in 4 here, so without a read at 0.50/1 or 1/2 I'd probably just give up on the turn. Can someone provide a guess as to if this guy will have and fold an UI ace 1 time in 4 on the river? Well, I just went back to kidcolin's OP and I've realized I basically just rehashed what he was saying. So I'm bringing nothing to the table. Enjoy! 
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#32
12-23-2005, 05:54 PM
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Re: I think I finally learning
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You're giving 3/6 opponents way too much credit. It doesn't matter to them if they're holding AT and they may be dominated and don't have odds to the gutshot since it'll probably be split. They're seeing the river. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I know counting outs and making correct calls would be giving them too much credit at this level. They don't know and don't care. That is also why I said that they are going to call the river with Ax UI. They don't actually put you on a hand - they are simply playing their hand and the board. They see a ragged board, and they have the high card - why not call, it's only one bet. [ QUOTE ] At the same time, your analysis is a little off. Against a pocket pair, they're drawing to 7-10 outs, and it's not THAT rare that they're drawing to 10. [/ QUOTE ] The gutshot puts a higher straight on the board, so only A7 would take it.
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