I am really bad at poker

[bambi]

If you where to ask me to rate where i stand on a scale of 1 - 10 in terms of poker skill i would say 2, i would think that many of people woudnt reach above 5.

I am wondering how good these guys that are crushing the games of today are? are they good just because others are bad? or are they good.

I have in my mind the old saying, the cards dont matter, but really they do matter, in fact the cards is all that matters, we wait for the good cards and throw the bad ones. So can a good player have bad cards forever, and i dont mean absolute dead cards, i mean if i was to play an infinite amount of hands and you were to play an infinite amount of hands, is it possible that the hands you got were slighty more +EV than mine.

I think about every hand i have won or lost and think how much theory went into the hand and how much luck it took to pull it off.

example i am dealt UTG 99 i raise the pot, button min raises, solid player i know he has i top ten hand, i decide to find out what he has, PP or AK etc i min raise back, my plan if he calls, or raises i am done with the hand as i will be beat, he calls, i hit a set on the flop and take all his money he shows QQ. Now what did this guy do wrong? i cant see any fualt in his play. if i dont hit my set he wins, he is obviusly worried about AA KK, i dont see how he cant go broke on that hand.

Now you are thinking, yeh but QQ will win enough money over time to make up for that, well that is true but, what have you done to earn that money off your opponent, nothing you got dealt QQ 99% of the time it plays itself from there. Hitting bottom set will also pay for its self over time, but who here as ever laid down a set on a board of 3610AJ rainbow, in fear of someone having a higher set. Cant say i have.

So what we have basically done is worked out what hands have the best EV in what spots, we wait for them then we attack, we allow the other players who arent so good get mixed up in everypot and we wait and wait and wait till we are at least a 60/40 fav and we pounce.

But what if you where forced to play every pot ie Heads Up, how many of us would come away winners when we cant wait. But heads up isnt accurate as your cards might be on a better run than mine and i cant do anything with cold cards.

Well then i guess your not a very good player, as the cards dont matter or do they?

[Subfallen]

Until you're a 10 at poker, this whole concern over relative luck is a frivolous tangent at best. Let me do you a favor: linky.

[shermn27]

First, you should review your posts a little more closely (especially long ones) for errors and mistakes. I usually am not picky about them as I know I make plenty myself, but I honestly had trouble reading and comprehending what you were trying to say.

Second, you should spend more time in the probability forum and learn more about the normal distribution, random events, and the law of large numbers.

Poker is a game in which cards are dealt out independently to all the players. Over the course of say 10 million hands, each player will have roughly the same value for starting cards (and finishing cards for that matter) as every other player in the game. Yet somehow, these certain people (let us call them professionals) always seem to come out with the most money. It would be natural to call them lucky b/c poker is gambling. But if all players got the same starting value over time and same finishing hand value, how did some players end up with all the money?

Guess what...they are good.

Yeah you need to know the % of time you're ahead each time and the chance of being ahead or getting ahead on the next street. in every situation based on all the factors.

This is poker. everything in poker is luck except the nuts but you can make good or bad decisions each time based on these chances. some decisions are very tough but most arent and you can learn which is which. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[trader77]

I know exactly where you are coming from and i often feel the same way. All I can tell you is that poker is a game of decisions. In any given situation you are always called on to make a decision. The one who decides right more often is usually the winner but not always. In the long run all you can do is decide if you are making more correct decisions than incorrect ones. Do not worry about winning or losing just worry about if you are making correct or incorrect decisions.

[Dan Mezick]

[ QUOTE ]
example i am dealt UTG 99 i raise the pot, button min raises, solid player i know he has i top ten hand, i decide to find out what he has, PP or AK etc i min raise back, my plan if he calls, or raises i am done with the hand as i will be beat, he calls, i hit a set on the flop and take all his money he shows QQ. Now what did this guy do wrong? i cant see any fualt in his play. if i dont hit my set he wins, he is obviusly worried about AA KK, i dont see how he cant go broke on that hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the guy did wrong was he stuck around with his QQ after:

1. The flop did not hit him;

2. He has a chance to notice you min-raised in early position; he must give you credit for something,

3. He min-reraises also (to see where you are) and he has a chance to notice you min-raise again. Now if he's been watching you he has done a very good job of defining your hand;

4. If he has a "theory clue" he realizes the gap-concept is in effect here pre-flop. (Need a better hand to call a raise than to open) which definitely depreciates his QQ in this scenario;


In light of all the above, what did he do wrong? Here it is:

[ QUOTE ]
So what we have basically done is worked out what hands have the best EV in what spots, we wait for them then we attack, we allow the other players who arent so good get mixed up in everypot and we wait and wait and wait till we are at least a 60/40 fav and we pounce.


[/ QUOTE ]

The 60-40 estimation by the QQ guy depends on the total situation. He's collected alot of info cheap pre-flop and also has seen the flop itself.

Assuming NL, the cards are a consideration but not the major thing. There is alot of other key non-card info to inform his decisions on later streets.

This guy is supposed to know he is trouble if:

1. If overcards hit the board, or you keep on coming, or both;

2. If he notices you dont come in with a pre-flop raise unless you have a pair say 88 or better most of the time, say 80% of the time, and any cards over 7 hit the flop and you bet,

3. If he notices you do not call a late raise with less than some minimum hand, again let's assume 88;

4. If he notices you do not reaise preflop with less than some minimum hand, let's say 99 through AA;

5. The 60-40 estimation by this QQ guy is highly dependent on valid assessment of the situation which is mostly about measuring the specific players in specific hands.

Assuming NL and QQ in a late seat and this action from an early seat pre-flop and QQ missing the flop, the best a prudent QQ can do here is check call. He's likely 50-50 or worse, especially if you bet post-flop and cards like 8,9,T, and up actually hit the flop.

It's not a pretty picture in NL for this QQ guy.

He can and should check-call it down in Limit.

Many of you will conclude I am too tight. I am not.

In NL if you dont bet the flop, a bad player may learn to believe in his QQ now, lead with the bare QQ after the turn or river, in which case in NL you win a large % of his stack by helping him believe. This is especially true if he is average skill and tight. Why? Because he plays few hands, and WANTS to play ALL his premium hands.

The QQ guy has to learn to be suspicious of being 50-50 or behind in this situation, especially in no-limit.

[diebitter]

I've suggested this more than once to similar posts. Get Texas Turbo Holdem, and play your usual games in the different setups (loose-aggressive, passive etc).

Because you can zip through so many hands, you get a good idea of how variance can affect your short-term gains/losses.

I've found this invaluable, and have not tilted at all since doing this, despite numerous bad beats.

[scrapperdog]

[ QUOTE ]
who here as ever laid down a set on a board of 3610AJ rainbow, in fear of someone having a higher set. Cant say i have.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can say that I have. Say you are sitting in a 50 dollar buy in game. You limp in with pocket 3's. The person in last position raises to a buck and four people see the flop.
Flop comes boom you hit your set. You bet out 4 bucks which is the size of the pot. Two people call.
Turn comes the ace. You bet 6 bucks this time and to your surprise both people call. River is the jack. The first person bets out 15 bucks and the second moves all in for an additional 14 bucks. So it is 39 bucks to call and you have 11 bucks invested so far. The key here is the players. One is a chaser and the other one is a limper who will limp with anything but aa, kk, qq, and ak. I am more afraid of the gutterball than the higher set, but with the raise and the all-in re raise someone probably has one of them. I am not telling you to fold, all I am saying is that I have folded in situations like this before, usually when I have a good feel for the people in the hand and know they are not big bluffers.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
So can a good player have bad cards forever, and i dont mean absolute dead cards, i mean if i was to play an infinite amount of hands and you were to play an infinite amount of hands, is it possible that the hands you got were slighty more +EV than mine.


[/ QUOTE ]
I'm no statistician, but I'm pretty sure, if it were possible to actually play an infinite amount of hands, that the EV of our hands would be exactly the same. That doesn't mean the cards can't run better or worse than average over very long stretches, tho.

I'm not sure I get the point of your post. We've all occasionally lost money with an overpair vs. a set, or a set vs. a higher set. It happens. How exactly does this relate to whether you're good at poker or not?