KK, i'm a calling station

bakku · #1 02-17-2005, 09:29 AM

Ultimate Bet 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

SB's 2nd hand

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, MP1 calls, 3 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, Hero caps, MP1 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (9 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (11 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

spydog · #2 02-17-2005, 09:31 AM

I don't think there is any other way to play this.

cjromero · #3 02-17-2005, 09:54 AM

I would play it the same. Guys in the small blind love to represent trips when the flop is paired. If he had an Ace, he is going to slowplay, at least on the flop.

gaming_mouse · #4 02-17-2005, 10:09 AM

MP1 folding was the best case scenario for you. In that case, the pot is laying you 8.5:2.5. However, if MP1 raises or even just calls I think you'll have to give it up.

So are you good here over 23% of the time. I actually don't know. It's close, but SB is leading into 4 people. Do you have a read on him? Without knowing that he was aggressive, I think I fold this flop.

chief444 · #5 02-17-2005, 10:16 AM

The flop call is fine.

But when the Q falls on the turn and SB bets into you again I think pretty hard about folding this. That being said I don't mind the call down against an unknown who 3-bets from the blind his second hand at the table.

bakku · #6 02-17-2005, 10:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
MP1 folding was the best case scenario for you. In that case, the pot is laying you 8.5:2.5. However, if MP1 raises or even just calls I think you'll have to give it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think MP1 raising/calling makes this an auto-fold, he could be on a flush draw.

[ QUOTE ]
So are you good here over 23% of the time. I actually don't know. It's close, but SB is leading into 4 people. Do you have a read on him? Without knowing that he was aggressive, I think I fold this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many people are betting out on this flop with an underpair hoping the PF capper is also on an underpair and will give up, so I think calling the flop is mandatory. The turn and river are a different story though..

gaming_mouse · #7 02-17-2005, 10:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But when the Q falls on the turn and SB bets into you again I think pretty hard about folding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting point.

So is your plan to call down if no Q or J falls?

Assuming SB will continue betting without an A, you are 16:19 dog to win the pot if he has tight 3-betting standards, and more of a dog if he is looser. Still a good enough overlay given your effective odds. So I guess you would. Again, a read would be nice.

But I think I take back my original recommendation of a fold. Though I agree that folding after the Q falls is right.

gm

gaming_mouse · #8 02-17-2005, 10:28 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Many people are betting out on this flop with an underpair hoping the PF capper is also on an underpair and will give up, so I think calling the flop is mandatory. The turn and river are a different story though..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are right (see my crossed post above). The first time I read the post I read the PF action too fast.

However, I still think MP1 calling or raising makes this a fold UI. He is much MORE likely to have an A than to be on a flush draw.

mtdoak · #9 02-17-2005, 10:32 AM

Am i the only one who raises the flop here? He could just as easily have QQ or JJ. If he 3 bets its check-call situation. You can just as easily take a free card on the turn if you want.

chief444 · #10 02-17-2005, 10:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming SB will continue betting without an A, you are 16:19 dog to win the pot if he has tight 3-betting standards, and more of a dog if he is looser. Still a good enough overlay given your effective odds. So I guess you would. Again, a read would be nice.

But I think I take back my original recommendation of a fold. Though I agree that folding after the Q falls is right.

[/ QUOTE ]
GM,

If I knew SB was a TAG or reasonable player with a pretty limited range of 3-betting hands from the blind then I would fold the turn. But I would probably call down here to be honest. I guess mainly I would be suspicious enough of someone who:

1) 3-bets preflop from the SB in the second hand seen at the table.
2) That I have no information on because I've been datamining so much that I have at least some stats on most of the TAG opponents I sit with. (although I guess that isn't really applicable here)

So I guess my thinking is there's a definite possibility of SB being a complete LAG and just spewing chips with a pair of dueces. Not very likely. But likely enough to call down. And anyone who bets this flop also bets this turn. Besides that there is a chance that a TAG will be betting TT or JJ on an AAx flop and bet again on the turn hoping to pick it up there.

Right or wrong, those are my thoughts.

Chief