Whats your next move?

[ekky]

Board: 6h 2s Th
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 23.0303 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { AcKs }
Hand 2: 76.9697 % [ 00.77 00.00 ] { JhJc }

and thats assuming both cards are black...

I think the point is that even if AK was 4/1 to win, and was getting 3.5/1 on the call.. you would be rooting for a fold.. as even though its going to be slighly chipEV+ for you if you get a call, you should (imo) tend to hope that you can avoid marginal situations when them folding gives you the (substantial) pot 100% of the time.

(i messed up my math somehow in a prev post.. so by pure chip EV, the JJ wants the AK to call... although I do stand by the comment above about rooting for them to fold when calling gives you a slight +ChipEV expectation in sutations where the pot is substantial relative to your chip stack)

[stevepa]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW

you dont want them to fold on this flop? AK (without any hearts) is about 25% to win on this flop.. and your all in lays them over 3/1. What is there about the situation to root for a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

You've miscalculated the pot odds (or I have...) Pot is 4450 and he has 2441 left. (4450+2441)/2441 = he's getting 2.82-1 as a 3-1 underdog so you want him to call (if chipEV=$EV).

On another note, does anyone think MP1's line is a better way to generate fold equity? ie. Are people more likely to fold to a preflop push or the bet half stack preflop, other half postflop. The second one seems to show more strength but also gives better odds to opponent at each decision point. Thoughts?

Steve

[ekky]

heh... wtf am I.

Note to self, dont post when waking up.

apologies

[nfpceo]

In the actual hand I check the flop...villain goes all in and I call. He flips over KK...I can't spike a J...and I'm left with a few chips.

rwanger: your right the villian was beggin for action and showed a lot of strength.

stevepa: In regards to your question about fold equity...villians half stack bet preflop kept me in the hand and made it easier for me to call his all in on the flop. If he had pushed pre-flop I'm folding.

Obviously I played this had really bad. I was expecting a bigger raise pre-flop if the villian had a monster. His raise of a lil over my bet got me to call. (If I'm going call that I should probally go all in). I figured he had AK maybe TT.

I checked called the all in..hoping he had overs. If I'm going do that I should of just want all in on the flop.

Thanks for the replys.

[rwanger]

[ QUOTE ]

If you were gonna fold it here, you should've folded PF, because you're not getting enough odds to flop a set and you're apparently sure your overpair outs are no good.


[/ QUOTE ]

At first glance, I agreed with you, given what I said that villian likely has AA or KK. However, if you assume that you can get the rest of his chips, you're risking 1100 to win around 5800, which is upwards of 5:1.

It's waaay tempting to call. Even if you know he has KK, you're still 20% or so to win the hand.

Of course, provided you take it to showdown.

All in all, it's not easy to get away from this given the stack sizes.