I fold TPTK

PokerBob · #1 11-19-2005, 06:19 AM

Canterbury 15/30 9 handed
Villain here is a bit loose, but is not a LAG. I have never seen him raise a trash hand, although he is a typical retard and will limp lots of poop.

I raise UTG with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 1 donkey folds, villain 3-bets, 1 donkey folds, a guy wearing an Indiana Jones hat CC's 3 bets, folds back to me and I call.

Flop 3 ways: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I donk bet, villain raises, Indiana folds, I call.

Turn HU: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I check, villain bets, I fold.

DeathDonkey · #2 11-19-2005, 06:22 AM

I think check/calling twice and then deciding what to do on the river is much better. It really doesn't matter what Indiana Jones does so long as he doesn't raise.

-DeathDonkey

PokerBob · #3 11-19-2005, 06:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think check/calling twice and then deciding what to do on the river is much better. It really doesn't matter what Indiana Jones does so long as he doesn't raise.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Indiana folded to villain's flop raise.

DeathDonkey · #4 11-19-2005, 06:32 AM

Noted, I'm just saying if you check, and the decent guy bets, and Indiana calls, it doesn't change anything for me and I still plan on check/calling til the river and then deciding.

-DeathDonkey

#5 11-19-2005, 06:45 AM

I really hate your line here Bob. You played the flop perfectly by betting into the raiser to force the other guy out, now that youve achieved your objective, theres nothing wrong with check/calling your hand all the way down and seeing if it is good. Are you that positive that the villain wont raise this flop with AsKs,AQ,JJ,TT or just AK in general since it is the most overplayed hand in the game? I certainly am not that positive. It is true that you may be an underdog to have the best hand here but you are getting 7.25-2 to call this down, I dont really think you are that big of an underdog, plus even the times the villian has AA,KK or QQ, you will still have 5 outs 60% of the time against this range and when he has AA you will still get lucky 4% of the time by hitting a Q on the river, all these small percentages add up. So when you combine the many times you still have the best hand here with the times you dont have the best hand but get lucky on the river, folding this turn given the size of the pot is very bad IMO.

tessarji · #6 11-19-2005, 06:53 AM

My gut feeling is that folding here is wrong. Math follows, via pokerstove.

Villain's Hand:

AA 3 ways,
KK 6 ways,
QQ 1 way
JJ 6 ways
AK 12 ways
AQ 6 ways

I think this is an appropriately tight range. Pokerstove says:

1,496 games 0.005 secs 299,200 games/sec

Board: Qs 7s 4d 7h

Player: equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Villain: 39.6390 % 30.82% 08.82% { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
PokerBob: 60.3610 % 51.54% 08.82% { AcQc }

You need to call (probably) 2 bets on turn and river to showdown. Final pot odds are 11:2, or 5.5:1.

Obviously your 'tilt' that this player has you beat is based on the flop raise, but I think you will win or chop enough to make this worth a call.

DeathDonkey · #7 11-19-2005, 06:56 AM

Hi Westley,

Is this pot really big enough we need to bet into the preflop raiser and actually want him to raise? I don't think so. I also think with Pokerbob's read, when this guy does raise the flop, we are in quite a bit of trouble.

-DeathDonkey

tessarji · #8 11-19-2005, 07:06 AM

My play for the hand, FWIW.

Three bet flop.

If villain four bets, C/C to SD.
If villain calls, bet the whole way...

Three betting this flop will probably shut down even KK, and I feel you make more when ahead by not allowing a weaker hand to check behind on any street.

PokerBob · #9 11-19-2005, 07:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Three betting this flop will probably shut down even KK,

[/ QUOTE ]

um, so i can keep betting a worse hand? This seems very not good to me.

by the way, if villain 4 bets the flop, i am beat like a drum.

Nick Royale · #10 11-19-2005, 09:20 AM

I wouldn't fold this turn. You don't even have to be ahead 20% to call down. Add the chance of you improving and I would guess that number should even be lower than 15%. Many will raise with JJ/TT and even AK. And putting him on a range of just AK/AA-TT is way to tight too. We should add a decent ammount of combos for AQ and a couple of even weaker hands because our read isn't solid and we need some variance in our range. Looks like a pretty easy calldown IMO.