What to do...

Gar Pike · #1 10-03-2005, 01:44 PM

Read on Villain is that he's agressive and tricky.

Hand history is

Hold'em No Limit - Level VII (100/200) Ante 25
Seat 1: MP2 (8375 in chips)
Seat 2: Villain (4815 in chips)
Seat 3: LP2 (3722 in chips)
Seat 4: Button (3935 in chips)
Seat 5: SB (13742 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (6736 in chips)
Seat 7: UTG (11820 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: EP1 (8800 in chips)
Seat 9: MP1 (12535 in chips)
MP2: posts 25
Villian: posts 25
LP2: posts 25
Button: posts 25
SB: posts 25
Hero: posts 25
UTG: posts 25
EP1: posts 25
MP1: posts 25
SB: posts 100
Hero: posts 200
Dealt to Hero [As 7c]
UTG: folds
EP1: calls 200
MP1: calls 200
MP2: folds
Villian: calls 200
LP2: folds
Button: calls 200
SB: calls 100
Hero: checks
(Pot 1425)
*** FLOP *** [4h 6d Jc]
SB: checks
Hero: checks
EP1: checks
MP1: checks
Villian: checks
Button: checks
*** TURN *** [4h 6d Jc] [2h]
SB: checks
Hero: checks
EP1: checks
MP1: checks
Villian: checks
Button: checks
*** RIVER *** [4h 6d Jc 2h] [7h]
SB: checks
Hero: checks
EP1: checks
MP1: checks
Villian: bets 4590 and is all-in
Button: folds
SB: folds
Hero: ???

I'm 80-90% sure this is a bluff. Pot is giving me 1.3:1 to call. Calling and losing hurts, but doesn't kill me.
Last time he slow-played a big pair, he called a pf raise, checked flop, bet turn & river. Also, earlier value bets were more like pot-size. This just looked wrong, like "I really want you-all to fold, you obviously don't like your hands" But, I only have 2nd pair.

What to do...

Regards

Gar

#2 10-03-2005, 01:46 PM

I dont know, there are quite a few hands that beat you here, this is super read dependant, but I would have to fold here... its not worth the chips to me.

#3 10-03-2005, 01:50 PM

Looks like he hit the flush to me. He is basically giving himself huge odds if someone makes a call with middle pair thinking he's trying to steal.

#4 10-03-2005, 01:50 PM

There is a flush draw, a straight draw and you don't even got top pair here. It would be a really sweet call if you called and won but I would fold this one. Too many dangerous cards out there.

BlackAces · #5 10-03-2005, 01:59 PM

I don't like this statement:

[ QUOTE ]
I'm 80-90% sure this is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
because if you're that sure, you have to call. You have to have confidence in your reads.

He's either bluffing here, or he's betting with a huge hand and counting on the fact that there are observant people that can call him down with a marginal hand thinking he must be bluffing. I'd lean more toward the latter and fold.

benneh · #6 10-03-2005, 02:02 PM

this is the easiest fold in the world. its like 4590 to win 5500 and you've only got a medium pair that isn't even best. there's a 3 flush, a few straights and an overcard out there.

why even question this? this might be more diffucult if there was any kind of betting prior to the river, but I still don't see how you would have gotten to the river anyway.

fold'em.

Gar Pike · #7 10-03-2005, 03:05 PM

Well, the reason I'm questioning it is...

First, let me say that it was 4950 to call 6375, not 5500 as you said. A quibble, I know, but still...

The reason I question is that I called and he turned over 8c 9c, and proceeded to berate me until I shut off the chat box.

Of course he would say it was a terrible call, he just lost all his chips on a bluff.

I used up all my time bank on this. On the one hand, I have nowhere near a great hand. On the other hand, he has given me no reason to think he has anything. I've seen him play for 5 orbits, he bet on draws, protected his top pairs hands, raised pairs preflop. He did none of that.

This was an agressive table. From the action, nobody liked their hand. I'm thinking he was counting on that, plus his allin, to get him the pot.

But, if he had a monster, why bet so much? Is that something good players do, way overbet in hopes you'll think they're bluffing? I see here all the time, "Bet before the flush card kills your action".

I don't know, I had a read and went with it, and it was correct.

Pot odds say that 75% of the time, he has to be bluffing and the people left to act aren't strong enough to overcall for a call to be correct.

I was actually waiting for somebody to bet, on the flop and turn, so I could fold. If his bet had been more in line with his earlier value bets, I would have folded.

Oh, well. I will keep in mind that limp, check, check, bet-all-in-last-to-act is a sign of strength, not weakness, and adjust accordingly.

Regards

Gar "The Fish" Pike