heads up decision with JJ and overcards on the board

cassady · #1 06-15-2005, 10:35 PM

Playing 4-8 at the local last friday night. This hand took place about mid-way though an eight hour session. Reads are as follows:
MP is a loose passive player, coldcalls preflop with any two moderately co-ordinated cards, ace-little, etc.
Button is an old guy, tight player, relatively ABC. If he's doing much raising, he's almost always got the goods.

I'm in early position with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

I raise, fold to MP, who coldcalls, everyone folds to Button who reraises, blinds fold, I call, MP calls.

10 bets to the flop of A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

I bet out, MP folds, Button raises, I call.

14 bets to the turn, which is: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Questions:
1). Do you like the lead out on the flop?
2). Given the reraise preflop and the raise on the flop, I'm fairly confident (90%) you can put Button on AA, KK or AK. Given this, is calling the raise on the flop reasonable?
3). What's the line for the turn?

brettbrettr · #2 06-15-2005, 10:38 PM

No, I don't like the flop lead. You should have check-calleed, given the size of the pot and your bd draws.

Your turn action depends on the type of player he is. You'd like to be able to bet 3-bet, but if he'll only call with the draw out there (ie, if he's weak), then a check raise might be better.

michaelp · #3 06-15-2005, 10:45 PM

I like the lead out post flop, on the cheap. Tight guys reraise I can fold without seeing the turn.
Look like you are still beat at the turn on 2/3 hands you put your opp on. But its hard to get away now and almost impossible to separate out the time he has AK. So looks like a check call line from here in for me.

brettbrettr · #4 06-15-2005, 10:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the lead out post flop, on the cheap. Tight guys reraise I can fold without seeing the turn.
Look like you are still beat at the turn on 2/3 hands you put your opp on. But its hard to get away now and almost impossible to separate out the time he has AK. So looks like a check call line from here in for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but this is not very good advice.

cassady · #5 06-15-2005, 10:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the lead out post flop, on the cheap. Tight guys reraise I can fold without seeing the turn.
Look like you are still beat at the turn on 2/3 hands you put your opp on. But its hard to get away now and almost impossible to separate out the time he has AK. So looks like a check call line from here in for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Note according to Bayesian analysis, if we're right about AA, KK, AK, we're beaten less than half the time on the turn.

One of the reasons I find this hand interesting is that it's the first time as a player that I've used bayesian techniques real time at the table to accurately calculate outs (calling the raise preflop).

JacksonTens · #6 06-15-2005, 10:54 PM

Yeah perhaps you should look at it this way. You have bottom pair on the flop and both an A & K have hit. I play B&M $8 as my standard game (not really into net poker) and loads of players carry an A or K way too far. THis flop killed you, don't lead out. check/fold and wait for a better flop.

But as you did call the turn, you definately want to bet, he may raise giving you the opportunity to 3-bet if you think its there. But if you put him on AA or KK, you really have to wonder what your even doing in the hand at this stage.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

cassady · #7 06-15-2005, 11:29 PM

I didn't narrow it to AA, KK, AK until the flop raise. I'd put his preflop 3 bet to pairs 10 and up, AK, AQs (maybe), KQs (maybe). Given his playing style, a portion of those hands he had that would currently beat me he could be pushed off of.

KDawgCometh · #8 06-16-2005, 12:00 AM

I don't like the flop bet at all. I think that I'm check/calling here getting 11-1 with my backdoor flushand straight draws along with my set 2 outer. I don't think that this guy on the button would be three betting PF with and lower pair than yours, and is only riasing with AA/KK/QQ/maybeJJ/AK(s and o). YOur JJ doesn't look too good against that rainge and that board.

mlb3zr · #9 06-16-2005, 12:23 AM

Given the read on button, I think I check/call the flop. I don't think you are pushing him off a better hand here, unless maybe QQ, and I don't want to pay 2 to see the turn. However, I think you do have to see the turn even after the raise because of your draws.

I think I c/r the turn and call down if he 3 bets. It's close between that and going for the bet/3 bet, but I don't like the idea of him capping the turn. Yes, I am weak tight. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

youdnf · #10 06-16-2005, 12:33 AM

I really dont like your bet out on the flop, because with a raise pre-flop most likely one of the two will have an ace, and you'll get re-raised. I think you have to call the re-raise though because of your backdoor draw, but if you can put him on AA or KK for sure i dont get the point of calling. Once you hit your jack you have to reraise and if he re-raises you, you proablly have to think your hand is beat, and depending on your oppenet call down or fold, but I would say most likly call down.