Is this a trap?

[Ironman]

I'm playing in the 1/2 O8 game on Ultimate Bet...full, loose table. PT says there are only 2 good players.

I'm dealt 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the small blind...8 players...yes 8 players...see the flop.

Flop (Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img])

I check, EP bets, 2 other callers, I.....

What do you think? Am I getting myself in trouble here if I call? Does anyone like a raise?

Thanks,

Dave

[boscoboy]

but i fold this hand - too tight? maybe, but youll never be happy playing omaha if you feel a need to call down with K or Q high flushes

leave that move for the fish

[Bremen]

[ QUOTE ]
leave that move for the fish

[/ QUOTE ]
Hero will be good here more often than not. I'd hazard a guess that hero will lose to a boat more often than the nut flush.

[GooperMC]

I think that a Q high flush and a K high flush are vastly different animals. In a full ring a K high flush loses to a better flush roughly 1:3 and a Q high flush loses around 60% of the time.

On to the actual hand; I put in a raise here. I want to know where I am at and I want to make it expensive for a set / two pair to beat me. Also I think that a raise will give me a ton of info, info that I can use to outplay my opponents (ie if a rock re-raises or calls throw it away or a school of fishies call go into check call mode). This is akin to the raise for info that you always hear the NLHE players talking about.

I think that a fold here is a little weak tight. There is 11SB in the pot right now and assuming there isn't a raising war there will be around 11BB in the pot by the end of this hand. If you go into check call mode you will put in 2.5BB. Assuming that there isn't a running low you will win (11 - 2.5) 66% of the time and loose 2.5 33% of the time for a total of approx +4BB.

That number is very generous because it doesn’t take into account the possibility of a raising war if you are beat, or a running low, or a board pair, ... All of these things will make this number drop but I don’t think that they will drop it to –EV. I can run a more complete EV calc if anyone think that these factors will make it -EV.

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
PT says there are only 2 good players.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't want to hijack your thread but how did you determine this? Old school gametime? Manual checking?

I have been playing some non-party sites and am severely missing PlayerView. Do you know something that I don't know?

[Mr_J]

8 players saw the flop. Assuming most pairs are played, then someone probally has a set. Better than 1 in 3 chance that he'd hit a FH. 1 in 3 you are up against the nut flush, BUT since the pot is so busy, chances are the ace is out there and you might be up against it 40-50% of the time. Add in the possibility of the low draw. FH may win it 30%. Nut flush say another 40%.

Is EP one of the good players (important in my decision)? If so he probally has it, and won't reraise when you raise into him. On the other hand, if you reraise and he calls (so the other 2 call), then you check the turn and he bets that says quite a bit. Reraising the flop does allow you to probe for info on the cheap street, instead of calling it down on later streets.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I getting myself in trouble here if I call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dave - Yes. Either fold or raise.

In my humble opinion, you should have bet the flop rather than checked. By betting you're hoping for a raise from the nut flush. Trouble is, you'll sometimes get a raise from top set or a fool. Another problem is someone holding the nut flush might get tricky and just call here.

I wouldn't usually draw primarily for the 2nd nut flush, but when you flop it, that's a different matter, in my humble opinion.

At any rate, if you bet, there really are four possibilities:
• (1) You'll get raised by the opponent with the nut flush.
• (2) An opponent with the nut flush will slow play it and just call.
• (3) You'll get raised by the opponent with top set.
• (4) You'll get raised by a fool.

If you do get raised, you have to decide what to do - and your decision is not cut and dried. You have to read your opponents well in these situations when you don't have the nuts yourself and there's a "fair" chance of an opponent holding the nuts - and that takes some poker skill.

What I mean by "fair" chance is the odds are about two to one in favor of no opponent holding the nut flush here. But that doesn't mean you're home free, because if the board pairs you might well get beaten by a full house or quads.

If I'm reading what you have written correctly, there was a bet, two calls and four folds. Out of seven opponents who saw the flop, three remain after the flop.

What can the original better have? What can the callers have? Neither of the callers raised. Why not, if either of them have the nut flush? Are they both drawing for low? Are they both drawing to non-nut flushes, maybe also with low possibilities? Do they have full house possibilities (sets or two pairs) along with flush and/or low possibilities?

These are difficult questions to answer. If you raise, you have to expect either three callers, or a re-raise. A re-raise by the original bettor might knock our one or both opponents. Lots of considerations.

But whatever. I think if you're going to play the flopped 2nd nut flush, you play it aggressively on the 2nd betting round. And I think you only do that if you can somehow read your opponents well. Then how you play the third betting round depends.

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone like a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I'd raise here, probing for the nut flush. (But then you have to be able to discern if a re-raise is truly from the nut flush - and also if the nut flush is possibly being coy and calling). Ironically, by raising, you're representing that you have the nut flush yourself. Sometimes, if you have good antennae, you can pick up a read on the nut flush (or lack of it).

This is a place to either get out of the pot or be very aggressive. You want someone with two pair to get out or pay through the nose. You also want the low draws to get out or pay through the nose.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Ironman]

Goop,

That's a good question. I do two things.

First, I have found that Playerview does work with UB, but it's clumsy. In the "configuration" page, where you set up the location of the little green numbers, there is a little drop down box in the lower right hand corner. It is preset to Party & Affiliates. It has two other settings to choose from. One of those is UB. Click on it. You will need to configure your UB table with the numbers you want. Close the Playerview screen and after you start recording your hand histories to PT, there will be pretty little green numbers all over your UB table.

Here is the problem.

When you sit down at the table, you always sit at the chair at the bottom. When you sit down, the players move but the numbers don't follow them. So I need to remember that the numbers I am looking at might really be two players to the right or three to the left. Something like that.

The other thing I do is I will go into Pokertracker and click on the little spade icon. A drop down window will open up that you can manually enter in the players at the table which gives you close to real time data on your opponents. I minimize this when I am playing more than one table and just pull it up when I'm not in a hand to glance at the numbers.

Hope that was helpful.

Any specific questions, just let me know.

Dave

[chaos]

[ QUOTE ]
PT says there are only 2 good players.

[/ QUOTE ]
Are they still in the hand?

I would tend to bet the flop hoping to get a read on where I am at. These situations are easier to play in a B&M game as you can get a better read on your opponents.

Having checked the flop, I would raise representing the nut flush and see what happens. Folding a flopped second nut flush is too tight.

[Ironman]

J

That's a good question. The EP betting machine was not one of the good players and that's why I called the bet closing out the betting after the flop.

Dave