very hard KK (pre)flop decision

[urbanati]

Doyles room 0.25-0.50 NL 6 handed.
Hero has 78$ villain covers.
Villain is quite loose, aggressive and is willing to bluff.
Villain raises to 1.50 UTG,
everyone folds,
hero is on the BB with KK and raises to 4.50,
villain raises to 28,
hero thinks and is afraid of AA but calls.
Flop comes TJQ rainbow.
Hero is to act...

[PoBoy321]

Check/fold.

[Mr. Sakuraba]

agreed. Its much more likely that vill has AK than AA. And if he does have ak, your screwed. Fold em up boys...

[PinkSteel]

[ QUOTE ]
agreed. Its much more likely that vill has AK than AA. And if he does have ak, your screwed. Fold em up boys...

[/ QUOTE ]

Does AK really merit a 3-bet to 1/3 of effective stacks in 6-max? Villain raised, then raised a reraise.

I know AK is statistically more likely than AA, 16 to 6, but that looks stronger than AK to me. Maybe that's why I'm terrible shorthanded....

I was thinking you could discount AK, and push this flop on a semi-bluff, maybe fold AA, the very unlikely other KK, or donk hands. Villain might put YOU on AK, QQ, JJ....

But folding's probably right; I imagine your fold equity sucks here.

[Mr. Sakuraba]

my current game is 50nl 6 max. Ive seen this several times with AKs. But who knows, its either AA or AK and your losing to both. Why not wait for a better spot to get the money in?

[urbanati]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
agreed. Its much more likely that vill has AK than AA. And if he does have ak, your screwed. Fold em up boys...

[/ QUOTE ]

Does AK really merit a 3-bet to 1/3 of effective stacks in 6-max? Villain raised, then raised a reraise.

I know AK is statistically more likely than AA, 16 to 6, but that looks stronger than AK to me. Maybe that's why I'm terrible shorthanded....

I was thinking you could discount AK, and push this flop on a semi-bluff, maybe fold AA, the very unlikely other KK, or donk hands. Villain might put YOU on AK, QQ, JJ....

But folding's probably right; I imagine your fold equity sucks here.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I put willain on AA I may as well lay it down preflop...
It is not worth calling for 28$ if I play it for set value against AA.
But what would you do if you were willain holding AA if hero pushed this flop???

Wow, I actually had the same situation happen to me yesterday against a decent player. I pushed the flop figuring he'd fold AA, villain called instantly with AKo.

It seems a lot of people are willing to make a huge three bet with AK.

I also had someone 3 bet my queens and I put him on AJ-AK, I pushed the rag flop, He called with AKs on a flush draw that didn't get there.

[PinkSteel]

I would consider that flop to be about the worst possible on planet earth for AA. It could only be worse if it were monotone and I didn't have the matching A. I think I would fold. But I really don't know, and I'm a 6-max incompetent.

[Supern]

That flop must be one of the worst possible for KK in this spot.
You are now behind AK, AA, QQ, JJ, TT.
The only possible re-raise hands you can beat is AQs and 99, but players don't reraise with these hands that big often enough to even mention it.

If you go all-in and get called your potodds are 2:1.

Pokerstove:
Against AA you win 22% on that flop.
Against AK you lose 91% of the time.
You have 2 Kings so AA and AK is almost as likely mathematically.
Only 8 ways to make AK when you have KK.
Against QQ you win 32%.

If he is a tight player you should fold as you can see.

Against a very loose wild player you may consider to push. But only if you think he would do this re-raise with some crappy hands as well. Or if you know he's. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

He will certainly not fold if you pushes. Only if he made a move on you.

[4_2_it]

With a loose aggressive, willing to bluff villain, I 4-bet all-in pre-flop. You know he is going to get you all in on any non-A flop. These guys 3-bet with a lot more than AA and AK. His range is 88-AA and AK-KT. I'll push it pre-flop and let him make the mistake.