K-high on the river; A rare bluff from me

[aflaba]

Villain did 3-bet before the flop. I think that makes him most likly to have AK, AQ the way he has played it. KQ is very likly as well.


By betting often hero loses 1BB to AK & AQ. (they would check behind)

By betting sometimes he wins half the pot, 3.5BB, when KQ folds to his bet.

Looking at this alone I think check-calling is better.


But it is very important that frequently villain will have a lower rank draw. A normal 3-bet does not mean great hand. He needs to check to induce bluffs from these hands.


I think you are right surfbullet that sometimes this is a bad play by villain with a pair. All the more reason to check and hope that he checks behind.


I check-call this.

[marand]

Villian folded and hero took the pot.

I still don't know if he folded a better hand than me though.
Could possibly be a split or maybe he folded an ace since he got convinced that I had a pair after the check/raise on the flop.

But I cannot think of one reasonable hand he could have that I beat on the river.
He did 3-bet me preflop so somehing like Q9 or 98 is hardly reasonable to assume.

The reason I posted this hand is that I almost never bluff on the river. I think this is like the 4th time in 20k hands at 10/20 so about once every 5000 hands!
I thought that this would be a good time to bluff, but a lot of you disagree.

When do you think it is profitable to bluff on the river in a 5/10 or 10/20 game?

[dave44]

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But he will also have a bunch of other cards alot of the time. At least that is my experience.

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Name some hands that his opponent could've played this way that KQ is ahead of. I see none.

When all the hands are ahead of KQ and all the hands are ahead of 98, Hero's hand hardly matters and changing it adds no value to his river bluff.

[Mig]

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Sometimes this is a cheap-showdown move by a bad player with something like 77 though.

Surf

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If you have 77 here and you are the button, you fire on the turn and check behind on the river or you fold to the flop cheraise ?

I will most likely fire the turn here and prolly check behind on the river ? WHat would you do with 77 and having the button here?

[smacksoup]

check/calling even a tame board like this j-high is suicide with k-high, seeing as how he three-bet preflop. unless he's a maniac, you lose to EVERYTHING.

[smacksoup]

this looked like as good a spot as any.

[aflaba]

[ QUOTE ]
check/calling even a tame board like this j-high is suicide with k-high, seeing as how he three-bet preflop. unless he's a maniac, you lose to EVERYTHING.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands that beat Hero could villain have? Villain is almost always on a draw here, right? The obvious draws are AK, AQ, KQ. The only one of these that might bet the river is KQ. Therefore Hero should call a bet. Folding is bad.

As I wrote my experience is that villain could easily have other draws as well, Q9s, 89s... whatever. A 3-bet does not mean a great hand from the majority of opponents 100% of the time, or even close. I believe that hero should check-call to catch bluffs from these. Definhetly not bluff the river.

Even if the opponent could only hold AK, AQ, KQ, check-calling would still be best ( here).

I can't believe people don't agree with me here, crazy people [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] or maybe I am crazy, nah