Interesting Hand #2

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no history with villain, I just know he has seen what I've done recently at this table (raised PF multiple times and folded to agression). I think given that alone this is a +EV call by a decent margin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I agree. Maybe I'm just pissed because I made a correct read and posted the hand yesterday and everyone told me I was a retard for making a read after two orbits. Sometimes ish on this board just confuses me and I get pissed when I get confused. NH. Truthfully, I agree with what you said. No King is making this raise. The only hand making this raise is a flush draw. Maybe this hand isn't even read dependent. I hate this game.

[Malachii]

Good read, but given that a flush draw has 33% equity against you and a king has you drawing to two outs, how often do you have to be ahead here?

[xorbie]

I don't need to win that often, I'm getting like 3:1 odds here, so I only need to win 25% of the time to break even. Against a flush draw I win 70% of the time (I have Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] so that gives me a possible redraw + a blocker). So if he has a flushdraw just 40% of the time or so, this is a +EV call. And like I said, I think he has a flushdraw (or another very likely hand, a middle PP like TT or JJ) often enough to make this call +EV.

[Toyboy]

More like 2.5 : 1 if I'm correct, so you need about 30%.

Given pf action, I'd say flush draw no pair is <20% probable (with highest prob. to Ahxh leaving you abt 60% pot equity), not many would call pfr with low sc but 10h9h and jh10h are possibilities.

Khxh not very likely given pf action, but could be KhQh, KhJh

Medium pair: very likely given pf action, but would they really push after you lead out on flop (you are representing AK credibly)? I assume not without a read.

44, 77: loose call pf but could maybe be justified given 2:1 pot odds he's given on the call and the relatively deep stacks?

AKo / AKs: the line pf would be unusual but not totally unlikely

All in all I think you'll find yourself in situations with <10% pot equity a lot of the time, and I think 40% probability on a flush draw (no king) or JJ/1010 is way too high.

Without a read I'd fold.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't need to win that often, I'm getting like 3:1 odds here, so I only need to win 25% of the time to break even. Against a flush draw I win 70% of the time (I have Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] so that gives me a possible redraw + a blocker). So if he has a flushdraw just 40% of the time or so, this is a +EV call. And like I said, I think he has a flushdraw (or another very likely hand, a middle PP like TT or JJ) often enough to make this call +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Malachii]

Well thought out post. Welcome to the forums Toyboy.

[Sifmole]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised so many of you are saying fold. I think this guy calls with a mediocre K to let me keep bluffing and definitely would have raised AA/KK/AK at some point earlier. He has 9T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and does not improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. Awesome. You called with no reads and you were right. What do you want us to say? Come on man. You know this hand is read dependent and you said "i have no reads." Against an unknown this is not an easy call. It's probably 50/50 at this level which means it doesn't matter what you do probably, but yeah, calling is +EV if it's 50/50 with dead money.

I just want to point out that if you're going to say that you had history with villain, everyone on this board tore me a new ass for a hand I posted based on the same amount of history with a villain yesterday (pushing AK preflop).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats action is a flush draw a pretty high percentage of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd agree in part.... an important factor is that the offsuit card is the highcard and very much in the zone for the PF raise, call line ( AKs ). I would expect very often to see this line if the villain held AK hearts -- in otherwords, villain is very likely already ahead and has the nut flush re-draw.

Put yourself in villains shoes -- OP re-raise PF, very likely range AA-TT, AKs, AKo. So villain would want to get it all in with AKs hearts, AA, KK, AKo because he probably correctly figures the OP is coming along for the ride and that in the couple of cases he is behind, he has a very strong redraw.

[vulturesrow]

Toyboy,

Great post. I thinky your 20% estimate (flush draw, no pair) is a bit low at these stakes. Fish love to do this. I think this is a call honestly. But great analysis.

[dtbog]

[ QUOTE ]
Good read, but given that a flush draw has 33% equity against you and a king has you drawing to two outs, how often do you have to be ahead here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

I think a lot of people forget about this far too often.

[xorbie]

I put in $15 PF and $35 on the flop, thats $50, so I'm getting slightly better than 3:1 on my call. Again, I think anyone raising here with just a K is going to happen pretty rarely. Sometimes I'm wrong, sometimes I'm right, but when you play LAG it really, really kills you to end up with a situation where people are trying to run you over, because you don't always have a hand. When I raise this to $15 PF after my previous history with the table, there is basically no way I can fold this hand postflop, unless it comes AK5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and everyone goes all in in front of me.

Also, even if this call is slightly -EV, it is +EV in the sense that it gives me a nice $200 stack so I can cover table and destroy them more efficiently.

As it was I ended up allin in a $400 pot with 444 against AA a few orbits later, so you can see why this is good (I of course got sucked out with a river A).

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. Awesome. You called with no reads and you were right. What do you want us to say? Come on man. You know this hand is read dependent and you said "i have no reads." Against an unknown this is not an easy call. It's probably 50/50 at this level which means it doesn't matter what you do probably, but yeah, calling is +EV if it's 50/50 with dead money.

I just want to point out that if you're going to say that you had history with villain, everyone on this board tore me a new ass for a hand I posted based on the same amount of history with a villain yesterday (pushing AK preflop).

[/ QUOTE ]