Some interesting spots

[parappa]

1. I'd fold. I can't believe I'm getting the odds to call 3 cold.
2. I'd bet, because I now read his flop bet as an autobet when he checks the turn.

[Shillx]

Hand 2: Think about the action postflop and why it is so confusing. Let's say that you are the villian and you have AK. You 3-bet preflop and bet the flop against a single opponent and just get called. How often are you going to check this hand on the turn HU? Probably never. In order for him to check here, he would really have to be giving up (in which case I should check and hope he bluffs the end) or he is gearing up for a check/raise with an overpair.

The reason why it is correct to check AA/KK in this spot against a good player is because it is WA/WB (it is WB because I "might" have trips or something like 99/88). Against a calling station, you should bet since he will call you with anything. But against someone who (should) know WA/WB situations, you should check since virtually every hand I could hold has 2 outs or less against his aces. If I have a small pocket I have 2 outs. If I have 8x or 9x I have two outs. He also has to consider that if I have overcards (like KJ) I'm probably not going to call a turn bet. Therefore he throws me some rope while I'm drawing dead, and that is very smart on his part. The only hands he would really hate checking to are JT/QJ/QT so I don't blame him for taking a chance with a check/raise. If I could have a variety of 5-outers, then it would be better to bet.

[SippinSoma]

Hand 2: I hate giving unknowns too much credit. In reality I would have followed the same line you did. But against a tricky or aggressive player I like checking behind and calling any river card unimproved. Induced bluffing is good.

It also avoids nasty c/r's like this one when you're behind. NH.

[Wetdog]

[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
1) Fold. "normal aggression" to me means that if someone's capped it before I can say "yeah but" and I have just a middling pair, I'm going to invest a lot of money in a 2 legged dog that won't hunt.

2) Check the turn. Either villain is on a straight draw that the turn slowed down (less likely with the PF 3bet) or has a high PP. Only 5BB in the pot to your 5(?) outs.
Bet/raise any 9 or A on the river or check/call if anything else but a 7 or 10 falls. Fold to a 7 or 10

[hicherbie]

1- i dont think a call is out of line. esp if they will still overplay their overcards if you flop a set.
2-bet!

[hicherbie]

Hmm, after reading the other posts i still like the call for 1. In this situation id call with something like TT/JJ...and given the action i might be as behind with 77 as i would be with JJ. what i would do from there depends on that flop.

as for 2. hmm, interesting situation. i wouldnt normally give unknown enough credit for a c/r here. shill, what would you do in the same situation if you checked, an overcard hit and he bet out?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm, after reading the other posts i still like the call for 1. In this situation id call with something like TT/JJ...and given the action i might be as behind with 77 as i would be with JJ. what i would do from there depends on that flop.

as for 2. hmm, interesting situation. i wouldnt normally give unknown enough credit for a c/r here. shill, what would you do in the same situation if you checked, an overcard hit and he bet out?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm calling any bet on the river no matter what card hits. I'm raising if the river is a 9 and calling if it is an ace.

Brad

[hicherbie]

sounds solid. but i dont know.....i just hate giving free cards without reads.

[toss]

Oh crap didn't see that hero was on the BB in hand 1. Changes a lot of things. I think its a clear call now.

[cmwck]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: I think there is a problem with your calculations of the rationale for this cold call. Aren't you going to have an expensive second-best hand 25 percent of the time that you flop your set. How many BBs do you think you'll need to add in to your winning hands to cover those.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just do a basic EV calculation.

First, assume:
1. You will win only 75% of the time that you flop a set.
2. You win 12-14BB post-flop.
3. Either all 3 opponents call the cap preflop, or everyone calls except the initial raiser.

Then,
8.82% of the time we flop a set and win 12-14BB + 5-6.5BB
2.94% of the time we flop a set and loose 1.5BB + 12-14BB
88.24% of the time we don't flop a set and loose 1.5BB

and

EV = .0882*([12,14]+[5,6.5]) - .0294*(1.5+[12,14]) - .8824*1.5
If we plug in the end points of the above ranges we get a list of 4 possible EVs:
.0288 , -.0888 , -.1035 , -.2211
If we assume that all 4 EV outcomes are equally likely, then the average EV is -.09615.

If we are guaranteed that all 3 opponents will call then the average EV is -.03.

So, to conclude, unless we know all the opponents will call and we know we can make up a minimum of 14 BB post-flop (knowing your average post-flop profit when you hit your set and win could be tricky), this is a fold preflop.