UB20k - How bad did I play this AK?

[petvan]

Down to 18 from 210 on the 20k at UB tonight.

I've been top 3 or so for most of the tourney, and likley seen as pretty tight if I have any image at all. Just had KK busted by AQo 4-5 hands ago for 1/3 of my stack, but I'm still top 6 or so with 40k, blinds at 600/1200, ante 100 or so.

I am second to act and 3X with AKo, big stack in SB and one other guy covering me both yet to act. Other guy covering me bumps my 3600 to 10.5k out of his 45k stack and everyone folds to me.

I go in the tank a bit, think a lot about a fold, then think folding would be too weak, so I call. I'm nervous about KK/AA here, but thinking he might make that move with QQ/JJ or AK/AQ as well. Maybe even weaker if he'd seen me fold to a couple reraises.

Flop is Q rag rag. I check, he checks. River is A putting two clubs on board and giving me TPTK obviously. I check, he raises about 5k. I push here hoping I've just found AJ, or KQs etc probing.

In hindsight, I think this is WAWB and I should try and call this down, but in general, I'm not sure the line here. Somehow expecting many to say push preflop.

Anyone give me some ideas? What do you put villian on?

Thanks

P

I think you can come over the top here and see JJ, AK a lot. I think it's fold/all in for me personally.

[petvan]

Are you talking preflop or turn out of curiosity. I think it applies to both ;-)

Thanks,

P

[Brad F.]

The thing that sent off alarms in my head was his check on the flop. He showed strength pre-flop and then he just slows down on the flop?

I think your check/call on the turn is a fine idea, although it's a tough spot and I'd feel the urge to get my chips in as well. Villian in my opinion probably has QQ, AQ, or another AK. I'm kind of biased though as the sound of your post makes me feel that you lost. That 5k bet could just be a probe bet I guess.

I think he calls with AJ here possibly, but did he really reraise a UTG+1 preflop raise with AJ?

I just don't see how you are ahead here, unless he is playing KK post flop horribly. I could see him maybe play JJ this way, but he's not calling your push with JJ.

So overall, I think calling his bet on the flop is the best option and hope for a cheap showdown. You beat his JJ or KK, but otherwise, I think most of the time, you are beat here.

Brad

[petvan]

Agree fully. I was playing great and had visions of a 2-6k payout entering my head and thus have been killing myself thinking about this hand.

Villian coming over the top preflop, but not all-in normally makes me think very big hand, but I also don't play a lot of 100's, and wondered if I was looking at a reraise move due to being perceived as tight.

In hindsight, the flop check on his part screams slow play to me, but I don't know if its just results oriented thinking.

He had QQ of course and I'm drawing dead with all my chips in the middle.

I think his line was standard for QQ in this spot and I missed it.

Anyone fold this preflop?

P

[ QUOTE ]
I've been top 3 or so for most of the tourney, and likley seen as pretty tight if I have any image at all. Just had KK busted by AQo 4-5 hands ago for 1/3 of my stack,

think a lot about a fold


[/ QUOTE ]
I think that your previous play is probably affecting your judgment. Understandable, but you can't win like that.

[ QUOTE ]

but I'm still top 6 or so with 40k, blinds at 600/1200, ante 100 or so.

Somehow expecting many to say push preflop.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given your stack size, I wouldn't say push pre-flop (although some more knowledgable than I could probably argue well for it). Even against TT-QQ, you're at roughly a 13% disadvantage. There's a decent chance you take down the pot right there, but not if the guy really does have As or Ks, and probably not if he has Qs and is willing to re-raise with them.

[ QUOTE ]

In hindsight, I think this is WAWB and I should try and call this down, but in general, I'm not sure the line here.


[/ QUOTE ]
I could be completely wrong here, but I'm guessing that you lost the hand given your tone and use of the word "hindsight."

[ QUOTE ]

I'm nervous about KK/AA here, but thinking he might make that move with QQ/JJ or AK/AQ as well. Maybe even weaker if he'd seen me fold to a couple reraises.


[/ QUOTE ]
Your nervousness is understandable. I wouldn't fold, but I can understand being nervous. I suppose one important question is, "Did he see you fold to a couple of reraises?" If so, then this could possibly be a move. I doubt it, blinds are too easily picked off at this stage to be reraising with JJ or AQ, but you saw the guy play, not me, so he could be doing just that.

[ QUOTE ]

Flop is Q rag rag. I check, he checks. River is A putting two clubs on board and giving me TPTK obviously. I check, he raises about 5k. I push here hoping I've just found AJ, or KQs etc probing.


[/ QUOTE ]
I probably have to c-bet the flop right here, 1/2 pot should be good. It would be almost a third of what he has left. Good chance that the c-bet folds AK, JJ.

Well, the question is, what hands are you still afraid of here. I think the answer is probably QQ, and possibly AQ/AA. Like I said, I doubt he re-raised with AQ (although it is possible), and he almost certainly didn't do it with KQ/AJ (I'm assuming a certain caliber of player here. I've never played in this tourney, maybe that's unjustified, cuz I've certainly seen these re-raises a lot in the lower buy-ins, especially early in the blinds). A reraise with AA is very likely, but I think that AA/KK probably bets on the flop or maybe the turn, it has to be thinking about QQ at least, hoping you call with AQ. I think AQ needs to define its position (your opponent must at least consider that you have AA/KK/QQ), and so it likely bets the flop. AK on his end probably c-bets the flop. I think JJ or TT certainly bets the flop after your check, don't want to give you any chances to improve, and it would probably fire again after the turn, assuming you check-called the flop bet. If the villian had KK, he wouldn't bet the A on the river. Your play screams weak AK(J?). So, I give him 30% Qs, 10% AA, 10% KK, 5% AQ, 20% AK, 25%x. x is a poorly played anything else. You played that so tight, that he might figure you'll lay down whatever you have to any sort of raise.

Pushing here gets you called by AA, QQ, AQ. I think that it folds KK/AK/x. You might still get called by AK. You could be called by KK sometimes, but that seems unlikely

The moral of the story? C-bet. Should you push given the way you played until now? No, probably not. It only folds hands you have beat/split pot with. To push, I'd have to put the guy solidly on AK, very solidly. Otherwise, you're risking a whole bunch of chips. Remember, don't raise the river unless it is going to do something for you. If raising it will allow you to win with a lesser hand than your opponent, raise. If it will allow you to extract more money from someone who you have beat, raise. If it's basically likely to get you called by a better hand, just call. Again, this is all assuming your opponent is a half-way decent poker player, not a donk who got lucky for the last three hours. You could run math to show for sure, but with the assumptions I've made, pushing here is definately -EV. If you can put him on a much higher percentage of AK (or something else you beat that calls you), then go ahead and push, but otherwise just call. A re-raise worth it's salt pot commits you, so certainly don't re-raise without pushing.

Will

[qbler]

I think I probably do fold preflop to the reraise, unless you have a solid read that you're being pushed around. He's reraising you a quarter of your stack (and close to 1/4 of his) after you already showed strength. Unless there's a read that he's super aggro or he thinks you're really weak he's only doing this with QQ+ (maybe JJ) and maybe AK. If he has KK or AA you're in trouble, QQ you're a flip against but only if you see all 5 cards so I don't really like just calling preflop, and I hate pushing this where folding here would still leave you 20 BBs. I just let this one go I think.

[petvan]

Thanks Will. Good insight which I'll take to heart. His check on the flop should have told me I'm way ahead or way behind, and thus I should maybe be probing the flop to define my spot, vs checking it past. That is, assuming I'm going to commit 1/4 of my stack to seeing a flop with AK, which the more I play AK late, the more I find calling raises with it from M>10 players an EV- affair.

P

[justT]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> River is A putting two clubs on board </pre><hr />

The clubs are unlikely to be significant given the preflop action since the Ace is on the board. I think WABA is right. I don't like the check-push here but it might be okay against the right type of Villain. What were your thoughts on the turn just before you hit the check button? Did you plan to push if he made a weak bet, or did you make that decision after he bet? If it's the former, then Villain might be the right type. If not, then your check almost commits you to trying to call it down.

So you probe bet the flop and he calls (continuing his slow-play). Does your turn bet action change when you spike TPTK after this line?