quick odds calculation question

[qwegybo]

that is great calculations. i really like the kiss formula myself. i cant calculate that fast at the table.
i wish i could. awesome stuff.

[damaniac]

Sorry I was thinking of a regular flush draw. My mistake.

[buriedbeds]

This is from the Full Tilt Poker newsletter a while back (yes, I'm enough of a poker nerd to keep them for future reference... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ), discussing the same basic concept:

"It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds of hitting a drawing hand when you're sitting at the poker table. Unless you're a genius with a gift for mathematics like Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do it. That leaves two options for the rest of us: The first option is to sit at home with a calculator, figure out the odds for every possible combination of draws, and then memorize them. That way, no matter what situation comes up, you always know the odds. But for those of us without a perfect memory, there's an easier way. Here is a simple trick for estimating those odds.

The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many "outs" you have. An "out" is any card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the number of cards available that give the hand you are drawing to. For example: suppose you hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c 4c. You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in the deck and you are looking at four of them -- the two in your hand, and the two on the board. That leaves nine clubs left in the deck, and two chances to hit one.

The trick to figuring out the approximate percentage chance of hitting the flush is to multiply your outs times the number of chances to hit it. In this case that would be nine outs multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number, multiply times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate percentage of the time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on that same flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended straight draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four kings and four eights). Eight outs with two cards to come gives you sixteen outs. Multiply times two and you will hit the straight approximately 32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.

One important thing to keep in mind is that the percentage stated is merely the percentage of the time that you will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the percentage of time that you will win the pot. You may hit your hand and still lose. In the first example, the Qc will pair the board and may give somebody a full house. In the second example both the Kc and the 8c will put a possible flush on the board, giving you the straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still, knowing the approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good beginning step on the road to better poker."

Hope that's helpful...

-jake.

[KCFire105]

Actually no one has answered my original question-
[ QUOTE ]
Would the following example be correct?

Flop = 9 5 2

I hold K J

I would have 13 outs equaling a 52% chance of catching.

No matter the pot size I would be able to call any size bet given that I would automatically receive better than 1-1 on my call?


[/ QUOTE ]

And by the way, I believe I only have 13 outs, not 15 as was said earlier. Your double counting the overs along with the same cards for the flush draw.

[top2pear]

Your example is correct but you made the same mistake that i made. You have 15 outs to improve (no fear of double-counting hearts because you can't catch a heart that pairs your hole cards: both your hole cards are hearts): all nine [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s, K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

So your example is what Goodnews was asking about and i believe that you can call any bet with such odds.

[Balla2hot4u]

i want to thank everyone for all their imput.. this has helped me tremendously.. not only did i learn outs on certain hands..and how to convert those outs to percentages(was getting very frustrated playing with my friends with the knowledge that i knew what percentage i had to hit my hand but what was bothering me was i was sitting there saying to myself.. great i know what percentage i have to hit my hand but what good does that do me.. i had no clue how to combine the pot odds and percentage to make my hand.. to know to call or fold or raise someone).. now with everyones imput i beilieve i have a good grasp on it and will actually apply it to my game.. thanks everyone
-Adam