The "lifespan" of Online Poker

[applej25]

I have noticed some replies in certain post that are claiming that online poker will die out. I'd like to get some more discussion on this as I think it is rediculous.

My reasons why I think Online-poker will not die out anytime soon (if ever) are as follows:

-- It is GAMBLING, people love to gamble.

-- It is so easily accessible. you can do it in your own home.

-- New generations are growing up and entering the poker world everyday.

Do you agree? Disagree?

Now I'm sure the popularity of poker on TV and such will die off a little eventually, but I can hardly see how the millions of online players will just go away. I just think there will always be fish in the water so why stop fishing?

[k_squared]

One quick thought to add... the structure of online poker allows the better players to take advantage of their skills by allowing them to multiptable. That means the bad players lose their money more quickly because the ratio of good players to bad players is skewed higher by the multi-tabling. I think it is true to claim that the better players are more likely to multi-table because (1) they have the confidence and bankroll to do so (2) the weaker players will go broke doing this much more quickly and will then leave the game.

So, the fact that we can multi-table (and make lots of money off of fish at low stakes) means that we push them out of the game at a much quicker rate than they would otherwise be pushed out. I also think it is more than conceivable that the number of fish coming into the games will be significantly less than the number of fish losing their roles and interest in the game, hence reducing the number of weak players.

Also, it would seem that the number of weak players would have to grow more quickly as time progresses to keep the profitability the same. I say this because when a player begins he can either become good or lose all his money. If he becomes good he is no longer a fish and the number of good players has increased. If he isn't good he leaves the game a loser... so either the pool of long term players is increased by one good player or it stays the smae size. Over time the pool of long term players with the skills to make money will increase meaning that unless you also increase the number of fish/beginners you will have a smaller piece of the action than before that other good player was added to the group.

-k_squared

[einbert]

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Also, it would seem that the number of weak players would have to grow more quickly as time progresses to keep the profitability the same. I say this because when a player begins he can either become good or lose all his money. If he becomes good he is no longer a fish and the number of good players has increased. If he isn't good he leaves the game a loser... so either the pool of long term players is increased by one good player or it stays the smae size. Over time the pool of long term players with the skills to make money will increase meaning that unless you also increase the number of fish/beginners you will have a smaller piece of the action than before that other good player was added to the group.

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However there are many losing players who continue to feed the game with their own money. At the 5/10 6max I often find myself seeing the same awful calling stations playing night after night. I wonder how they can keep playing losing money at a rate of X$/hour but for some they see it as recreation and they are just paying a fee to have some fun.

I have a hard time believing that online poker will die out, but I've only been here a short time so what do I know.

[Harv72b]

I think we're definitely in the "golden age" of online poker right now, or perhaps on the tail end of it. The sudden explosion of popularity that the game is enjoying because of its increased exposure on television has been fueling a huge growth in the ranks of its players. Most of the new players flat out suck, and will never get much better because:

A) They don't understand the underlying concepts of the game which we all take for granted (i.e., not playing 84o for 3 bets)
B) They won't take the time to buy a few books, read them, and change their game
C) They fail to comprehend that poker is not like blackjack or roulette, in that it's not all about the luck of the draw
D) They simply don't care, because they just like to gamble

Unfortunately, like any other suddenly popular fad, the attention will fade and new players will not be joining the ranks in such numbers as they are now. And in a perfect example of Darwinian evolution, the bad players will be forced to either improve their play, or run out of money. So, yes, online poker as an easy source of income will eventually die off as the ratio of good players to bad players flips over. The good players will have to become better in order to survive, and merely playing "decent" poker will not be enough to make money.

Online poker does not offer the same atmosphere as a casino or card room does. There is no witty banter among the players, or very little; no pats on the back or laughter; no free drinks; no scantily clad cocktail waitresses. We realize that the higher hands/hour rate and lower overhead costs (no tips, no parking, no hotel, etc) make online poker a much better option, but the "just for fun" player doesn't care about that. So you'll still be able to make easy money in the B&M games, and that is unlikely to change in the forseeable future.

I don't think that online poker will die out soon or even in the next couple years, but I fail to see how it can't become a much tougher game as time goes by.

[webmonarch]

There is no question in my mind that online poker will eventually die out (as we know it). The pool of new entrants has to dry up eventually.

Think of it this way. Right now, poker is on TV, in newspaper articles, and more. The time is ripe to get involved. We can expect that anyone who would "potentially" have interest would become involved now. So, we have a huge pool of people who are getting involved, across all social lines, regadless of age, income, etc.

There are only two things that will happen to the VAST majority of players. One, they will get better. Two, they will not get better, and leave the game. There is some middle ground, of course, but there isn't too much.

The eventuality is that this mass entrance of fish will either dry up, or these players will all get better. Both results will lead to much harder games. These harder games will lead to a greater amount of marginal players leaving, making the games harder, and so on and so on . . .

So, as we know it, its gonna dry up soon. There just simply won't be enogh new entrants to make it as profitable as it once was.

Prediction: I think that this year's WSOP coverage may be the end of it. The incredible final winning amount will lead to the last big influx of new players. After that, I think it's over.

[Dynasty]

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There is no question in my mind that online poker will eventually die out (as we know it). The pool of new entrants has to dry up eventually.

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Do you think Las Vegas casino owners in the 1950's were saying to themselves "Gee, these players keep playing blackjack, craps, roulette, and the slot machines and losing their money. I guess it'll all be over in a couple years."

Online poker isn't going anywhere. It's here to stay and will be much more popular 10 years from now than it is today.

The fish don't run out of money. They have jobs and redeposit another $200 when they feel like playing again.

[applej25]

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There is no question in my mind that online poker will eventually die out (as we know it). The pool of new entrants has to dry up eventually.

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Do you think Las Vegas casino owners in the 1950's were saying to themselves "Gee, these players keep playing blackjack, craps, roulette, and the slot machines and losing their money. I guess it'll all be over in a couple years."

Online poker isn't going anywhere. It's here to stay and will be much more popular 10 years from now than it is today.

The fish don't run out of money. They have jobs and redeposit another $200 when they feel like playing again.

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EXACTLY.

[baumer]

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There is no question in my mind that online poker will eventually die out (as we know it). The pool of new entrants has to dry up eventually.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think Las Vegas casino owners in the 1950's were saying to themselves "Gee, these players keep playing blackjack, craps, roulette, and the slot machines and losing their money. I guess it'll all be over in a couple years."

Online poker isn't going anywhere. It's here to stay and will be much more popular 10 years from now than it is today.

The fish don't run out of money. They have jobs and redeposit another $200 when they feel like playing again.

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EXACTLY.

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[Sooga]

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However there are many losing players who continue to feed the game with their own money. At the 5/10 6max I often find myself seeing the same awful calling stations playing night after night. I wonder how they can keep playing losing money at a rate of X$/hour but for some they see it as recreation and they are just paying a fee to have some fun.


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Every time I see a quote like this, I wonder what % of losers are just 'having fun' and which of them really have serious gambling problems.

[ismisus]

you know to some people losing 200 a week is not a gambling problem. They earn way more in their job. Now the "pro" pokers who earn 200 a week playing poker have a serious gambling problem.