Question About Trends

[Daniel Durant]

I was wondering what the opinions out there are about trends. I see all this statistical data out there of how State U. is 9-1 against the spread when coming off a road loss, or that so-and-so is 1-4 ATS in week 6. How much should you pay attention to this data? Part of me thinks that it is the same thing as flipping a coin, or betting red or black in roulette. If red hits 7 of the past 8 times it doesn't make it more likely it will hit on the 9th try. On the other hand I can see how there is something to it. Maybe one coach or team gets his team so pumped up on Monday Night that they have a natural let down the following Sunday and therefore have a bad record ATS on those Sundays. Thoughts on this would be appreciated.

[Wildbill]

You can create trends if you wanted. Just have enough variables and go at it. If you really want to use trends just remember that they have to make sense and have to occur enough times to be of any value. Even trends such as 10-2 ATS against the NFC Central have little value for an AFC East team. The trend has to be something that happens fairly often and then has a long history, and it has to generally be under the same coach. If you can meet these tough criteria then go ahead and use it as another point in your handicapping, but never a sole reason to bet.

[mikelow]

Often, I go against trends. If I like a particular side, and find that I'm on the same side of those silly "trends," I might downgrade my bet or pass the game.

Trends are in the eyes of the beholder!