AQs UTG

[BlindingLaser]

First time poster, so take it easy on me.

I'm playing 5/10 sitting to the right of a friend of mine, fellow 2+2er, and someone who I consider to be a better player than me.

I raise A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG, and my friend 3-bets in UTG+1. Passes to the player in MP2, who cold calls, and then passes to the big blind, who cold calls for two. I call it back, so four players to the flop.
(12.4 SBs)
Flop comes: T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving me two overs. Big blind checks, I check, my friend bets, MP2 calls, big blind folds, and I call, intending to evaluate each of my options on the turn.
(7.7 BBs)
Turn comes: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], I check, my friend bets, MP2 calls, I check-raise, my friend thinks, says aloud, "You caught a set of Qs, didn't you." and folds. MP2 calls.
(12.7 BBs)
River comes: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I bet, and MP2 calls.
Final pot:
(14.7 BBs)

My friend is a tight-aggressive player. I know that he has TT-AA or AK(s). I discount both AA and QQ as a result of my holding, and make his three most likely hands to be JJ, KK, and AK(s). Is my check-raise correct given this fact? The pot is large, and giving an equal value to each of those three hands, I'm ahead 2/3s of the time when I check-raise, and moreover, if I get 3-bet, I can assume I'm behind, call the turn, and hope to catch a Q or an A on the river.

Results (in white, below):
<font color="white"> My friend mucked KK to my check raise, and my two pair held up against MP2. </font>

[bicyclekick]

Fold the flop. Since you did call, check call the turn, and bet the river. I'd 3 bet that river if you're friend raises, too. Just call a 4 bet.

I think the flop call is pretty damn bad. I know I've done things like that too and AQs is a good hand and you hate giving it up, but it's the right play. You're out of position, your friend either has a set and you're drawing nearly dead, has you drawing to 6 outs at most with JJ, has you drawing nearly dead with AA, or to 3 or so outs with AK, or QQ, or KK. Blegh. Fold it. I'm sure i missed some hands but the point is he's got you beat right now and you're drawing really damn thin at best.

[bicyclekick]

Oh I just read the result now and I can't decide who made a bigger mistake, you for check/raising him when the queen came or him for laying the KK down. I think you played it worse.

I dunno, maybe it isn't as bad of a fold as I originally thought. I might do it against certain players, but I tend to believe friends less and payoff more. Kind of a 'mine is bigger than yours' kind of metagame thing. Lots of light raises.

[Lmn55d]

There are 3 ways he could have TT, against which you have 0 outs.

There are 6 ways he could have JJ, against which you have 6 outs.

There are 3 ways he could have QQ, against which you have 3 outs.

There are 6 ways he could have KK, against which you have 3 outs.

There are 3 ways he could have AA, against which you have 0 outs.

There are 12 ways he could have AK, against which you have 3 outs.

So 33 total combos: [ (3/33)x 0 + (6/33) x 6 + (3/33) x 3 + (6/33) x 3 + (3/33) x 0 + (12/33) X 3) ] = 3 outs on average. You were getting 14.4:1, which is good for 3 outs I think...so it seems kind of close. If he has AK and you hit a Q on the turn, as you did, he has 7 outs to win (4 Js and 3 Ks). So this kind of thing probably discounts your outs to more of a fold. Plus, a lot of your outs create possible flushes and flush redraws. I think its a pretty clear fold considering all of this.

[BlindingLaser]

In retrospect, I think bicyclekick pegged my thinking exactly (some sort of macho thing), and it's a clear fold.

Do I get to add any outs if I think he's on AK and I think I can put him off his hand? If I check-raise that turn on any non AK card, and he IS holding AK, I'm almost certain that he would fold to the raise immediately, presuming that I had a pocket pair, probably TT that hit a set.

[Lmn55d]

you're right about the math, I just edited it. About pushing him off AK, you gotta remember the other dudes in the hand...you'd have to push everyone off their hands.

[Clarkmeister]

Your friend made a horrific fold on the turn.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
Your friend made a horrific fold on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Must be a Mirage regular.