MLB Division Series, will this trend continue this year??

[whipsaw]

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... while in 2002 the O/U was 15-2.

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Sports trends are purely random. What is important is each individual matchup and handicap. ...
That said I think there are certain line based trends that have merit like fading the perpetually overpriced or certain underdog situations where public ignorance is exemplified.

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First off, scoring trends are not purely random, there are rules changes, umpiring changes, umpire selection for playoffs, that all affect scoring and that are distinct from year to year. You don't think scoring totals for MLB games went up from 70s to 80s to 90s? Or is that voodoo?

Anyway O/U 3 of last 4 years in Div Series:
15-2
12-4
9-6-1 = 36-12-1. That's a trend. I don't have the 2003 stats, but even if 4-12 that's 63% over covers. How many games at a 60% ratio of overs will it take to convince you - 100? 1000?

Naj

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2003 was 5-11-2, bringing your total to 37-23-3, or 74% over. If you add in 2001, which there's really no reason not to, you add another 5-12-1, making the total 42-35-4, which is 55% over. 2000 was 6-9, bringing the total to 48-44-4, 52% over. 1999 is the earliest year for which I have numbers, and that year was 8-8, making the total 56-52-4, slightly under 52%.

So unless you can give a cognizable reason why pre-2002 numbers shouldn't be included, it doesn't look like much of a trend to me. I posted on this a few days ago giving these #s.

[mrbaseball]

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O/U 3 of last 4 years

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Whats the last 4 out of 4 years?

[plus_man]

Personally, I appreciate your efforts into this. It is easy to dismiss "strategm" in gambling but it takes a noble effort to try.