The Pats do not "own" Peyton Manning.

[LargeCents]

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I agree with your sentiments that the Patriots are better than people think given their brutal schedule in their first 6 games.
However, last week's performance was just inexcusable coming off a bye, with the whole Bruschi emotional stuff and they were lucky to beat a team that probably couldn't beat Boston College on the road.
As for the Colts - it's impossible for their schedule to not get tougher after the crap they've played so far, but still - they get the Steelers & Chargers at home. What's their toughest remaining road game after this week, Jacksonville? They're a lock for homefield barring a Manning injury IMO.

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The games that bug me for the Colts coming up are: @Jax, @Cincy, @Seattle, Pitts, SD. Those are 5 tough games against 5 tough teams. If they can win 4 of those 5, they'll easily get the home field and they will definitely deserve it. But, they could easily go 3-2 or 2-3 with those 5. Suddenly a loss to the Patriots will look pretty big. Granted, the Pats still have to run the table, but KC(4-3) is the only team with a winning record left on the Pats' schedule. If the Colts go 2-3, then the Pats can lose to KC and still pull it out.

This is all very hypothetical, given that the Colts may win on Monday and virtually wrap up a first round bye. But if the Colts lose, Pandora's box is wide open.

[lastchance]

The Patriots are 4-3 and hurting pretty badly. To get homefield, they have to beat out a 6-2 Denver team that's very good, Pittsburgh at 6-2, Cincinatti at 7-2.

There's no way the Patriots are getting home-field against those teams unless they play much better over the second half of the season. They pretty much have to win every game here on out, and this team hasn't looked like a team that's capable of doing that.

Oh, and I think Colts win big at Foxboro on Monday Night, too. The 2005 Patriots are a far cry from the awesome team we saw last year.