Chase the low draw?

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Let me try my hand at the math. If it's 3 to 1 with implied pot odds, and 3 to 2 in favor to pick up a low card on the turn. That's fine, but if there's a low card, you have to pay off ANOTHER bet on the turn to see the river. That's 1.5 big bets right there for 1/2 the pot. (I'll edit this in a second)

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Jedi - Yes, that's the general idea. Thanks for the help.

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm now confused. Someone help me out here?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are two different major factors involved.

The first is that when Hero does make the nut low, he will not necessarily be the only one making the nut low.

The second has to do with (as Greg puts it) Hero "paying a tax" when he splits the pot. If Hero puts one chip into a three chip pot and wins the whole (four chip) pot, Hero wins three chips. But if Hero only wins half of the (four chip) pot, Hero actually only wins one chip.

And if Hero puts one chip into a three chip and wins a quarter of the pot, Hero breaks even and doesn't really win anything at all. (In real life, you don't count getting your own chip back as winning a chip; that logic only works in simulations).

I'm going to respond to Ben and maybe that will make it clearer. I thought my blue chip, red chip, white chip example worked, but FatNutz writes that it doesn't. I'll look at that again and then get back in my response to Ben. Might take me a while.

Meanwhile, may the force be with you.

Buzz

[chaos]

I think of it this way:

The pot has 16.5 BB and you win half or 8.25BB. You put in .5 BB on the flop, 1 BB on the turn, and 2 BB on the river for a total of 3.5 BB. So in your half of the pot your profit is 4.75 BB.

While you were drawing you put in 1.5 BB to win 4.75 BB. So you got just over 3 to 1. This assumes you never get quartered or worse. So you odds are actually less. The odds of making a backdoor low are higher than the odds the pot is laying you so drawing to a backdoor low loses money.

Without backdoor straight/flush draws, yeah, he doesn't. But sometimes OP will make a two way hand here. When I said he was getting 8:1 to peel (?) I was taking into consideration he had a live backdoor high draw.

Also, his implied odds when he makes his low are decent, considering this hand was 4-way if I remeber correctly.



The hand is completely different if he just has 2,3.


A 5 on the turn gives him a semi-wrap, and any 2,3 or 4 gives him a wheel draw. Not to mention that any 5,6,7,8 gives him an uncounterfeitable low draw.


I think the only reason I'm really advocating a flop call is that this hand is 4-way, and some of the time OP will make a two way hand with his backdoor draws.


I also reccomend playing this game primarily on the turn, I feel flop play is secondary.

Also, I think a loose aggressive PF and flop strategy is correct in many O8B games, and that the turn is when you have to make more adjustments to your play.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Without backdoor straight/flush draws, yeah, he doesn't. But sometimes OP will make a two way hand here. When I said he was getting 8:1 to peel (?) I was taking into consideration he had a live backdoor high draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

The board is paired (with high cards) with multiple opponents. What odds do you give of the backdoor high holding up, even if it hits?

Good enough to peel one.

[gergery]

Taking a card off on the flop here is probably close to EV neutral

You are getting 12:1 there. Your low is worth ~3 outs and the backdoor straight and flush are probably worth 1 out. And with 4 outs you need ~10:1 odds so you just barely have it. But given the fact that you may face flop/turn aggression, might miss the river check-raise, might lose some opponents and their implied odds, and most importantly, might get quartered, makes it pretty close to even.

-g

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
Good enough to peel one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I discount the backdoor outs down to near zero. Normally, each backdoor flush/straight draw is worth 1 out each. I'd discount this to about .1 outs with the paired board and high hand. What kind of hands are staying in on this flop? Even if you're not drawing dead for high, any hand that contains a Ten in it would be staying in and taint your flush/straight outs. I think the discussion really should be limited to the backdoor low draw because of this. I could be wrong, but when you're looking for backdoor draws at 1/2 the pot which might not even be good if it hits, it just seems like a recipe for disaster.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good enough to peel one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I discount the backdoor outs down to near zero. Normally, each backdoor flush/straight draw is worth 1 out each. I'd discount this to about .1 outs with the paired board and high hand. What kind of hands are staying in on this flop? Even if you're not drawing dead for high, any hand that contains a Ten in it would be staying in and taint your flush/straight outs. I think the discussion really should be limited to the backdoor low draw because of this. I could be wrong, but when you're looking for backdoor draws at 1/2 the pot which might not even be good if it hits, it just seems like a recipe for disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]
I second this. Flop fold seems trivially obvious to me.

Alright. Let's play heads up then, fish.


Tex


Spoof from edauers post in MHLHE

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Good enough to peel one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I discount the backdoor outs down to near zero. Normally, each backdoor flush/straight draw is worth 1 out each. I'd discount this to about .1 outs with the paired board and high hand. What kind of hands are staying in on this flop? Even if you're not drawing dead for high, any hand that contains a Ten in it would be staying in and taint your flush/straight outs. I think the discussion really should be limited to the backdoor low draw because of this. I could be wrong, but when you're looking for backdoor draws at 1/2 the pot which might not even be good if it hits, it just seems like a recipe for disaster.

[/ QUOTE ]
I second this. Flop fold seems trivially obvious to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seemed obvious to me too until I ran my excel spreadsheet counting specific cards with specific results. depending on what assumptions you want to use its relatively close.

-g