K5s, posting in the CO, flop decision - Page 2

Marquis · #11 08-19-2005, 02:26 PM

I agree with Redd. Super-easy fold is a huge exaggeration. I think it's a slim call. How many outs do you guys want to discount this to? You can't go less than 3, and with 3 you only have to make up a couple BBs. You have two streets worth of betting and at least 4 opponents with which to make up well more than you need.

Aaron W. · #12 08-19-2005, 02:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
crap guys. maybe i'm wrong, but i call this.
why do we think someone has a king again? or a flush draw for that matter? do we think SB or BB is checkraising??

i understand that it's good to discount outs and all that, but we're talking about one small bet here people. and the pot is getting bigger...

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, plus it's a *real disaster* to be chopping a pot with four players putting money into it...

A flop call is fine. It's by no means a spectacular call (you discount your queen of flush and worry about the flush redraw if you hit your hand on the turn), but it's not a super-easy fold. This is a gambling situation. After 7 people see the flop and there are two callers before it gets to you, I don't mind taking the gamble. You have the added bonus of being in pretty good relative position to the flop bettor, and excellent position to EVERYONE.

Or you can fold it. You're not taking or leaving very much at all.

#13 08-19-2005, 03:25 PM

I'm also not calling the fold a foregone conclusion, but it's my line for sure. The Qc is trouble - UTG, MP2, or MP3 could plausibly be on the flush draw - and with T, J, Q, and A on the board, are we really going to get much action from anyone with whom we're not chopping? At 0.50/1, maybe. The odds are right on the line (10-1), but after discounting the Qc, and factoring in the possibility of the chop . . . I'm out.

Eeegah · #14 08-19-2005, 08:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
crap guys. maybe i'm wrong, but i call this.
why do we think someone has a king again?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's seven handed. There's a 60% chance that there's a second king out there.

[/ QUOTE ]or a flush draw for that matter? do we think SB or BB is checkraising??

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, it's seven handed. Calculating the odds here is almost impossible without resorting to a Monte Carlo simulation, but I wouldn't be surprised if someone were on a flush draw 2 times out of 3 here. Not saying whether this is a call/fold decision since I think it's a bit close, but dismissing them outright isn't a good idea.

Pax and I are working on trying to figure out the exact probability here, but it may be a while. As a hopeless math geek this interests me for some sadistic reason; I'll come back with results.

Paxosmotic · #15 08-19-2005, 08:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pax and I are working on trying to figure out the exact probability here, but it may be a while. As a hopeless math geek this interests me for some sadistic reason; I'll come back with results.

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought we were just doing this for fun [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

What I came up with : There are 55 remaining combinations of 2 clubs, and 1176 possible preflop hands. The chance of an individual not having 2 clubs is 1-[55/1176] = 95.32%, and the chance of all 6 Villains not having 2 clubs is 95.32%^6.

By my math, there is a 75.007% chance that no one is holding two clubs here.

Even if absolutely no one else had a club, the chance of the 7th person getting two clubs is still only 9.24% [(11/35)*(10/34)].

irishpint · #16 08-19-2005, 08:41 PM

this ought to be folded IMO since we need to much to go right (no other K, Q of not clubs, no river club, not c/r)

i'd rather pick a better battle.

ThaHero · #17 08-19-2005, 08:43 PM

I'm glad i don't have to do that math at the table... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I think I would fold personally but that's just because I don't have super confidence in my postflop play.

Paxosmotic · #18 08-19-2005, 08:46 PM

I'm amazed that no one has suggested that we RAISE here. No one's really shown any strength so far and we're very likely to pick up a freecard against opponents this passive. We can also fold out any Kings to keep the pot to ourselves. I fold this approximately never, and don't know that raising is the best option, but I'm shocked it hasn't even been whispered about yet.

hemstock · #19 08-19-2005, 10:06 PM

You have 3 clear outs and you are getting 10 to 1. Not enough even with implied odds cause even if you hit your card, you might split the pot many times. I fold.
If I raised the flop and I got reraised by a flush draw, or a made straight, that would suck really hard. Besides I don't think hero has equity to raise.

Rev. Good Will · #20 08-20-2005, 12:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm amazed that no one has suggested that we RAISE here. No one's really shown any strength so far and we're very likely to pick up a freecard against opponents this passive. We can also fold out any Kings to keep the pot to ourselves. I fold this approximately never, and don't know that raising is the best option, but I'm shocked it hasn't even been whispered about yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

We are certainly not ahead of the bettor right here, and if we raise, we make it a 1:4 for us to hit a hand that will hit (assume our Q outs are squeaky clean) 1:10.8 times, it is just simply very unprofitable.