Is the flop the right time to play for overcalls?

MrG · #1 07-28-2005, 02:50 PM

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP3 raises, SB 3-bets, Hero calls, MP1 folds, MP3 calls.

River: (20.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 23.50 BB

W. Deranged · #2 07-28-2005, 02:55 PM

1. Flop I think a raise is better. Players behind you might come along anyway. You may buy yourself a free card.

You'll hear in lesser poker books that people should try to keep players in with draws... that's taken way to far in my opinion. Raising here has a lot of value, particularly because you likely have so many outs. If players put in two behind you, great. If you buy position and/or get a free card, also great. Nothing bad happens when you raise here. (And there's even the chance you might actually have the best hand).

2. Turn call is actually fine in my opinion, because, though you have a monster, players behind you might come along drawing completely or close to dead. If you are behind to trips from the SB players, you don't want to put in too much drawing. Overcalls here seem to work out a little better, in my opinion, as a raise will seem most likely to shut out lots of players who would make mistakes calling one bet while put you in a bad position if you happen to be against a player who has you beat.

callmedonnie · #3 07-28-2005, 03:11 PM

I think I might raise the flop your equity is up around 50%. Also, I hope I'm not the only one who raises this turn? You are playing like a calling station in this one.

If you raise the turn, depending on the later action you decision gets easier. You are obviously seeing a river though. And for a single bet, it looks like an easy call.

callmedonnie · #4 07-28-2005, 03:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
2. Turn call is actually fine in my opinion, because, though you have a monster, players behind you might come along drawing completely or close to dead. If you are behind to trips from the SB players, you don't want to put in too much drawing. Overcalls here seem to work out a little better, in my opinion, as a raise will seem most likely to shut out lots of players who would make mistakes calling one bet while put you in a bad position if you happen to be against a player who has you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like this but am having trouble knowing when to use this play or when to force people out. Obviously your made hand plus draw will beat most other draws. But don't you want to make it expensive for lesser pairs, this pot being so big and all?

My natural tendency is to raise here but I see your logic. In multiway pots I lean towards pushing out players when my hand is good, but not necessarily good enough. (This kind of relates to the logic in that AQo thread)

The hands are similar, but here you also have the flush draw so isn't betting this one better given equity, defense, value reasons?

Also, I'm praying here the sb doesn't have aces or kings.

W. Deranged · #5 07-28-2005, 03:22 PM

The key point here is that your hand does not really need to be defended. Other than possibly a K and possibly a 10, there are no hands that really bother you here. You have so much of the deck crippled in those cases that you are behind that the players you are likely to force out are players who would not be correct in calling anyway.

If we had AQo it's an automatic raise and I would really think much about it.

The key here is to maximize the mistakes of the people drawing thin. This will make up for the "times" that someone has a 4 and we're behind. There are more players behind us than in front of us, and by calling we may actually get more total bets in on the turn.

It's kind of an extension of the "check-the-turn-with-outs, bet-the-turn-with-no-outs" idea. We don't raise here because we have outs, even though our equity is pretty high.

butters · #6 07-28-2005, 03:51 PM

even at 21-1, i think you can save a bet on the river and fold here, unless sb's been getting out of hand.

W. Deranged · #7 07-28-2005, 04:05 PM

That would be a very, very bad attempt to save a bet. Note that even if you win this pot 2% of the time you are not wasting more than half a bet.

-Will

butters · #8 07-28-2005, 04:12 PM

i understand. i just don't think that unless sb's been overplaying hands that you're good here 2% of the time, given the turn action.

cmwck · #9 07-28-2005, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I might raise the flop your equity is up around 50%.

[/ QUOTE ]

50% is a little too generous. We have 9 outs for the flush, plus probably no more than 2.5 or 3 for the overcards. We can catch an ace and still be behind AK, or catch a Q and be behind KK or AA. That puts our equity at about 42-45%

We still have an equity edge against two opponents, which makes raising the flop not bad.

BWebb · #10 07-28-2005, 05:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That would be a very, very bad attempt to save a bet. Note that even if you win this pot 2% of the time you are not wasting more than half a bet.

-Will

[/ QUOTE ]

What??? That is still -$2 in EV. I'm not saying this is not a call (even though I think it is not), I just don't see why you are looking at it this way.