QQ - another FlopOnly hand for Cpt. Handsome

sourbeaver · #1 10-17-2005, 01:36 PM

None of them fancy reads. Captain H would like to play some turns and rivers, but Smelly Villain says NO !... NO!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($25)
Button ($27.35)
SB ($9.55)
Hero ($25.63)
UTG ($3.95)
UTG+1 ($35.96)
UTG+2 ($25.55)
MP1 ($25.35)
MP2 ($9.75)
MP3 ($5.76)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.25. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, CO (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $2.25.

Flop: ($5.85) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Villain pushes $22.50, Hero calls $17.50.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($48.35) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $48.35

#2 10-17-2005, 01:44 PM

so he flopped trips, you sucked out?

sourbeaver · #3 10-17-2005, 01:52 PM

Useful, thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

swolfe · #4 10-17-2005, 01:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Useful, thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

why is AA in the title?

sourbeaver · #5 10-17-2005, 02:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Useful, thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

why is AA in the title?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is an excellent question for which I do not have an answer.

xorbie · #6 10-17-2005, 02:26 PM

Looks probably ok. I think he has TT/99/88/77 often enough.

Godfather80 · #7 10-17-2005, 02:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
None of them fancy reads. Captain H would like to play some turns and rivers, but Smelly Villain says NO !... NO!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO ($25)
Button ($27.35)
SB ($9.55)
Hero ($25.63)
UTG ($3.95)
UTG+1 ($35.96)
UTG+2 ($25.55)
MP1 ($25.35)
MP2 ($9.75)
MP3 ($5.76)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.25. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.25, MP3 calls $0.25, CO (poster) checks, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls $2.25.

Flop: ($5.85) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Villain pushes $22.50, Hero calls $17.50.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($48.35) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $48.35

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless Villain made a mistake preflop and accidently clicked check, you were ahead preflop. Hand range includes all SCs, PPs, and Axs.

When he pushes the flop, I believe Villain will hold: a set 25%, 2 pair 25%, a straight 20%, and stuff you beat 30%. At the $25NL level, I just don't see amazing semibluffing or bluffing very often. Usually these players are true blue postflop.

You had to call $17.50 to win $32.85, so you need to win ~35% of the time.

This decision is very close EV-wise. Without reads on villain's postflop play, I'm folding.

sourbeaver · #8 10-17-2005, 03:32 PM

Thanks for replies folks. How is your analysis affected on the following hand which has a very similar betting sequence ?

Link

Godfather80 · #9 10-17-2005, 03:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for replies folks. How is your analysis affected on the following hand which has a very similar betting sequence ?

Link

[/ QUOTE ]

Dunno. What did "Smelly" hold in that hand?