Bottom pair, missed draws a-plenty - Do I want a free showdown?

[zeitgeist]

Villain is new to the table.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (7.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero wonders if he has a 55% chance of winning if called.

Final Pot: 7.50 BB

[Harv72b]

I hate the turn raise on an utterly unscary card.

He's checking with the intention of calling a bet on the river. The only time he folds is if he was betting his own, lower flush draw (no pair) the whole way...in which case you win by checking through. Or, of course, he might be checking with the intention of raising with his QJ.

[zeitgeist]

Not to hijack my own thread, but you don't think 14 possible outs is worth a raise headsup on the turn? Or do you consider this more read-dependent?

At a minimum it gets me a free showdown (notwithstanding that I'm questioning whether I want it).

I agree with you about the river though.

[damaniac]

Unless you have the best hand some portion of the time, will get him to fold a better hand some portion of the time, or will set him up to fold a better hand on the river a much larger portion of the time, I see no reason to raise the turn. 14 outs means you have a lot of chances to improve, but you still have an equity deficit against his hand range here.

[Scotch78]

There are 4.5 BB in the pot after UTG's turn bet, which means you aren't even getting 3-1 on a calldown. I don't know many unknowns who (semi-)bluff every street that often.

Scott

[zeitgeist]

I checked it back; villain had 87 and MHIG. Then I started second-guessing my check but Harv's right, it would have been a wasted bet.

Thanks for the replies all. I hadn't thought about the turn raise before now; I'm going to give that some more thought.