good draw, OOP, multiway action

[liquid]

Omaha Hi $0.50-$0.50 PL

Seat 5: CO ($45.30)
Seat 7: B1 ($44)
Seat 8: Hero [4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] (B2, $50)
Seat 9: UTG ($11)

ANTES/BLINDS
B1 posts blind ($0.50), Hero posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Button folds, B1 checks, Hero checks.

FLOP [4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
B1 checks, Hero checks, UTG bets $0.50, UTG+1 folds, CO bets $4, B1 calls $4, Hero...

[fuzzbox]

I think a good case can be made for a pot raise and hope to get a bigger flush draw to fold. If you are up against the naked straight on your own, then you are in really good shape, and if you are up against 33 with no redraws, then you are quite happy.

I think pot it. If Nut-Flush comes along for the ride (often ppl dont fold nut flush draw at these levels, or even K-flush draw), then you are getting good odds to fill up.

My vote = pot raise.

[ QUOTE ]

I think pot it. If Nut-Flush comes along for the ride (often ppl dont fold nut flush draw at these levels, or even K-flush draw), then you are getting good odds to fill up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is highly likely to result in all-in reraise from whomever has the straight, which, if it is naked is fine, but the OP could be in a lot of trouble if his flush outs are counterfeited.

[josie_wales]

Did you consider folding this preflop

jw

(and yes, I know that he posted and just needed to check)

If you pot and this becomes a head-to-head all-in fest then these are your probable scenarios:

You vs. made naked straight/str8 + higher str8 redraws : 63/37 (YOU/HIM)

You vs. str8 + lesser flush redraws : 60/40 (YOU/HIM)

You vs. str8 + higher flush redraw : 37/63 (YOU/HIM)

The odds that a single opponent has the nut straight + a higher club than your T AND had a second club is just over 18%. But you're against 2 opponents, so the odds that one of them has such a hand is about 33%. Overall, you're about 53/47 for a $100+ pot that will cost you about $45. Your EV here is about +$10.

If it goes 3 way, your worst case scenario is that you have 25% equity, best case 57%+.

No reason to fear going all-in here.

[Tilt]

Good post Acorns.

Hmm, I guess I forgot about small stacked UTG who may have a nut-flush draw who will suddenly find himself getting odds to call all-in, thus potentially stripping a sizeable chunk of your EV (since the main pot will be approx 1/3 the total pot). I don't think it's enough to make a re-raise a net -EV though.

I think you pot it and look for the re-raise all in. If you pot it and get put all in you will mostlikely be up against the straight only. I think the nut flush if it is out there may get away from it, the K or Q flush should also see the muck.

If the money were deeper I could see taking a card off and going from there.

[liquid]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you pot it and look for the re-raise all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

A few weeks ago CO would be 100% to push with a naked straight, but I think he's back on his meds now. These days if he re-raised all in he'd probably have a redraw that's eating my outs. I should have mentioned that in the OP.

Given stack size (in the case of UTG) and position (in the case of B1) I felt my chances of pushing out a better flush draw were low. Since I could only get ~$15 more in, I could be in for an awkward turn OOP, so I called. Dissent welcome.

Resulting action was revealing:

Hero calls $4, UTG bets $10 and is all-in, CO calls $6.50, B1 calls $6.50.

What do you put these folks on now?

[ QUOTE ]
Resulting action was revealing:

Hero calls $4, UTG bets $10 and is all-in, CO calls $6.50, B1 calls $6.50.

What do you put these folks on now?

[/ QUOTE ]
Only meant to test my ability to read the situation:

My best guess :

UTG has the nut-straight. Since his raise isn't enough to price out a flush draw he probably has a good flush draw himself (or boat draws). Assuming he's thinking straight anyway.

CO has slowed down, either because he is currently strong but vulnerable to draws or he's extremely strong and is trying to keep you 2 in the pot.

B1 just check and calls. Usually this means a good draw or yet another naked straight.

If you're lucky, you've walked into 3 straights with only UTG having good redraws. More likely, you're facing 2 naked straights at least one of which has a better flush draw while the third player has something equivalent to the nut flush draw.

I suspect the possablities are too open to define a "best" line here. The likely scenarios suggest a split between call and raise (with top set you obviously can't fold here - at least not yet). To make matters worse, raising is likely either very wrong (that worst case scenario I mentioned before is growing more likely - esp with the UTG all-in now) or very right while simply calling means a probable forced fold if a non-pair/non-club comes. Any club leaves you with a very difficult decision indeed.

In the end, OOP suggests either go all-in now, or exercise pot control. I feel, UTG's play has severly weakened your all-in option. So just call and play your boat outs ...

... aw screw it, pot it.

Damn, I'm torn.