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#1
08-22-2005, 08:39 PM
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A Time to Kill
The 10/20 live game with a 1/2 kill. Full table. Several very loose preflop players -- lots of calling, five and six-way pots.
SB is an older gentleman who has been Loose/Passive. BB has been somewhat loose/aggressive and may be tilting. KP (Kill Poster) is an older woman that I had originally stereotyped as loose passive but has actually proven herself to be tight aggressive. She is CO and won the previous pot so she posts $15 for this hand that plays as $15/$30. Hero is UTG+2 with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Preflop: UTG folds, UTG+1 (very loose preflop player) calls, Hero calls, 3 folds, KP checks, button folds, SB calls, BB raises , UTG+1 calls, hero calls, KP raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, hero calls. Flop (15SB): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] SB checks, UTG+1 checks, hero bets, KP raises , SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls. Turn: (10.5BB): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero checks, KP bets, SB calls, hero ????. Comments? 
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#3
08-22-2005, 08:50 PM
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Re: A Time to Kill
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I knew the preflop non-fold would be the first comment -- and I probably agree... I was running hot and that seems to influence me a lot more when I am playing live... maybe cold logic and reason is easier in front of the computer screen... Although, I think it is easier to react to individuals and their behavior live. In this hand, I put both of these players on very specific holdings based on the action... What do you think of the flop?
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#4
08-22-2005, 09:53 PM
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Re: A Time to Kill
[ QUOTE ]
Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs, and 9 crub outs. That plus checkraising the turn might clean up 1.5 more K outs and the something like 5-10% of the time hero has the best hand--that killer limp/3-bet looks like 87s cheese--I think I talked myself into checkraising the turn with a weak hand and lots of outs to try to induce "big folds."
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#5
08-22-2005, 09:56 PM
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Re: A Time to Kill
[ QUOTE ]
I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs [/ QUOTE ] Just curious, what do you put Villain on that the 3s are full outs but the kings are only half outs? I counted it like this the first time around but then disagreed.
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#6
08-22-2005, 10:11 PM
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Re: A Time to Kill
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs [/ QUOTE ] Just curious, what do you put Villain on that the 3s are full outs but the kings are only half outs? I counted it like this the first time around but then disagreed. [/ QUOTE ] SB, not the villain.
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#7
08-22-2005, 10:29 PM
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Re: A Time to Kill
He is saying that it much more likely somehow else has a K than a 3.
I'd call the turn, just not enough bang for my buck to c/r although a c/r is creative, and not out of the Q. JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#8
08-22-2005, 11:59 PM
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Re: A Time to Kill
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs, and 9 crub outs. That plus checkraising the turn might clean up 1.5 more K outs and the something like 5-10% of the time hero has the best hand--that killer limp/3-bet looks like 87s cheese--I think I talked myself into checkraising the turn with a weak hand and lots of outs to try to induce "big folds." [/ QUOTE ] I don't think you have the best hand here even 5%. I also don't think you're getting a "big fold" from KP (a TAG who overlimp-reraised PF) very often. I'm willing to be convinced, but it's gonna take some effort. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Rob
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#9
08-23-2005, 12:13 PM
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Re: A Time to Kill
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Fold preflop. I don't see how you can fold the turn and raising sucks. Rob [/ QUOTE ] I give the hero 1.5 K outs, 2 Three outs, and 9 crub outs. That plus checkraising the turn might clean up 1.5 more K outs and the something like 5-10% of the time hero has the best hand--that killer limp/3-bet looks like 87s cheese--I think I talked myself into checkraising the turn with a weak hand and lots of outs to try to induce "big folds." [/ QUOTE ] I don't think you have the best hand here even 5%. I also don't think you're getting a "big fold" from KP (a TAG who overlimp-reraised PF) very often. I'm willing to be convinced, but it's gonna take some effort. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Rob [/ QUOTE ] For what its worth, I expected KP to have a big pair (Tens or better). Limp-reraise seems crazy with TT/JJ, but the table wasn't showing a whole lot of confidence pre-flop. I would have been shocked by an 87s type of hand -- but I had laid down a busted super draw (straigh and flush) on the river to her a few hands earlier. (I put SB on flopping the flush draw). I would agree that my chance of having the best hand on the turn was <10% and there was no way KP was folding to a check-raise on the turn.
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#10
08-23-2005, 12:37 PM
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Re: A Time to Kill
I don't like PF, and I'm not sure that I like the flop. Given the action PF I think a bet is sure to get raised. I also don't know if you have any clean outs to two pair, because a King is very possibly going to give someone Kings up with a better kicker. I think a flop fold is decent.
On the turn though I am not going anywhere. I am prepared to c/f the river w/out a flush. Unless maybe a King falls, because then the pot is so big that it could be worth it when KP has queens. SB I am putting on small to mid pocket pair that he has to call down with, or maybe 56. BTW, whatever happened to big blind on this one?
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