$11: When is this a good laydown?

[pineapple888]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter

Button (t2088)
SB (t275)
Hero (t555)
UTG (t5082)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds. SB is all-In.
</font>
Hero folds.


Final Pot: t425

Results:
No showdown. SB wins t425.

Under what conditions is Hero's fold +EV?

[applejuicekid]

The SB shows you 88+?

[DDH]

I don't know that I would ever fold there, unless I had the SB read as an absolute rock, who would only have about 3 hands here. Otherwise, I don't want to just give up those 150 chips to the other short stack when they mean a lot to both of us.

[AlcateL]

when you're not getting unbelievable pot odds this is a good lay down, i call this on any day of the week (apart from thursday)

[SlackerMcFly]

I think that the conditions are right for a fold here:

If you fold, you are at ~405 (330 if folding your SB next hand). Meantime, he has 425 pre-post (275 after posting BB next hand).

The biggies won't want to get involved w/out a pretty decent hand as they want you two to duke it out.

Fold this and shove any two from your SB if you are confident that the other 2 will fold/fold out of the way. If either raises, fold your SB unless it's a monster. Super shorty will have to call with any two and you sneak ITM when he busts.

Just an (un-popular) opinion. Slacka

[Uppercut]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that the conditions are right for a fold here:

If you fold, you are at ~405 (330 if folding your SB next hand). Meantime, he has 425 pre-post (275 after posting BB next hand).

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhhh, the villian is on the button the next hand, not in the big blind.

[SlackerMcFly]

Dooh! Totally mis-read the seats. Nice catch. Still, I'd probably fold this and hope for something scary to shove into the biggies next hand from the t75 SB. I'd consider folding the SB for another orbit in this case as well.

SlackerMcIlliterate

[pineapple888]

I'm clearly playing for third at the moment.

I folded because villain was loose-weak, often calling the blinds, even for a large percentage of his stack.

By folding, I guarantee that I will see 8 more hands, even when the blinds jump to 100/200. (If I call and lose, I'm blinded out next cycle.)

I was confident that villain would bust out by then. (He busted out next hand.)

A somewhat tricky little math calculation when multi-tabling. I thought it might be moderately interesting.

Note that I ignored pot odds completely, and would have folded if I had AK and I knew he had 27o.

I think you're (wrongly) also completely ignoring the possibility of finishing better than 3rd if you bust the small stack.

Also, if you call and lose to the small stack, there's nothing saying you're sure to finish 4th.

[pineapple888]

I didn't ignore these -- I would certainly call with AA or KK-- but they are minor considerations in my mind.

I can still finish better than third with my play as well.

First step is to get ITM, and I believe my play gave me the best chance of doing so.