Odds of Winning a WSOP Satellite These Days

[KramerTM]

I read that PokerStars alone sent some 1,000+ of the 5,500+ entrants to the WSOP this year. I plan, with any luck, to make this my first year playing in the Main Event. With all the online satellites that run and PokerStars being dedicated to send another 1,000+ players next year, I was wondering what you guys think the odds are of making it? I mean, if you take a very good MTT player, give him a grand to play some smaller buy-in super satellites, and a couple of months of free time... is it just a matter of time until he wins his seat?

Just wondering if I should get my hopes up for next year...

[Bigdaddydvo]

That was basically the technique I used, though I didn't qualify until about a week out. I think Stars is the best way to go. Start at the cheap turbos, build up a W$ bankroll, and assault the Double Shootouts. If you're a decent SNG player that is the one I recommend.

[KramerTM]

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That was basically the technique I used, though I didn't qualify until about a week out. I think Stars is the best way to go. Start at the cheap turbos, build up a W$ bankroll, and assault the Double Shootouts. If you're a decent SNG player that is the one I recommend.

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Oooo... SnGs are my bread and butter... I'm glad you told me this. You'll have to excuse my Stars ingorance as I have no account there yet (though with the changes at Party, I'll be setting up an account real soon). Not sure what W$ is or the Double Shootouts are, but I'm sure I can find out with a little research. Do you know if Stars started running satellites for '06 already?

So how much time/money did it take you to qualify last year? And Stars gave you a free hotel room at the Rio if you agree to deck yourself out in their merchandise, right?

Thanks bro.

[Bigdaddydvo]

All said and done I probably spent 500-600 in qualifying attempts.

This was offset by the 1K cash that comes with the seat.

Deal was the seat, 1K spending money, and 9 nights at the Mirage if you wear the gear. Plus, the stars support is world class.

W$ is a fancy way of saying "tournament event dollars"

They are running Aruba qualifiers and won't be doing WSOP until next March or so. Try the Aruba W$ turbos to get jazzed up on experience.

[kenberman]

if you are an average player, committed to spending $1K, I would think your chances are approx. 10%. can't see it being much more or less than that, unless you find some huge added money tournaments

[gmrankin]

do you want the Odds of Winning... well, after much thought and highly complex math i would say that you have a 1 in (enter number of people that enter here) chance of winning.

good luck, and no thank you's are necessary. your smile is enough.

[Bartman387]

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do you want the Odds of Winning... well, after much thought and highly complex math i would say that you have a 1 in (enter number of people that enter here) chance of winning.


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Not quite that bad, as someone with more skill has a better chance than a fish, just like at any poker game.

I would say with good amount of skill and commitment to winning a seat there is a decent chance of getting a seat. Especially when taking into consideration the amount of fish that get into these knowing they are going to be the next moneymaker.

I am also unfamiliar with PS, what types of routes did they offer? I play on Full Tilt and found that they had a ton of ways to get in and remember thinking they had the best routes in.

[MicroBob]

Atlantis is in the Bahamas. Not aruba.


With only $1k I would say your chances of winning a WSOP seat isn't THAT great.

The $160 double-shootouts are my preferred way of doing it. There are some really bad players in the 81-players fields...but some decent ones too.

I got lucky and qualified on my 6th attempt....when I was heads-up I spiked a set on the river when I was all-in with 33 against a VERY good player's 88. And off to the WSOP I went.


Stars will probably start their WSOP satellites in Jan or Feb.

Right now they are running satellites for the Bahamas event in January (which about every 2+2'er in the MTT forum and their brother is trying to win it seems) as well as the EPT events (Dublin, Ireland on Oct 29 would be QUITE nice to win a seat to...since that happens to be my birthday).


The satellite system for these events is virtually the same as they are for the WSOP satellites (different turbo-satellites, etc etc).

Additionally, if you win a seat to a 'main' satellite you can just unregister from that event and they give you W$.
It's like regular cash except that you can only spend it on the 'special' tourney-satellites on Stars.
the good thing is that the W$ never expire.

So...if you're serious about building up your W$ and trying to win a seat eventually to the WSOP...then you can actually start playing the smaller satellites RIGHT NOW. And you can just keep your W$ all the way up until they start running the big-field WSOP events in Feb.

Of course...if you enter a 'main' satellite and happen to win a seat to the Bahamas in January or Monte Carlo in march then you are stuck with that seat.
I'm just talking about the smaller satellites like the $5-rebuys with large fields where 10 or 20 players or so win seats to bigger events like the $650 weekend qualifier (which you would be more interested in unregistering from).



ALSO - Stars does NOT have an initial-deposit bonus.
but they are CURRENTLY running a reload bonus (that is good for new players). So if you sign-up now and deposit $600 then you will get $150 in bonus-dollars that you can clear.
And at Stars....just playing the tourneys is good for clearing the bonus (you don't have to play the ring-games).
so you really should deposit now just to get the bonus (and you can cash-out after 48-hours if you want to get the money back).

[MicroBob]

Also - if you DO win a seat to the WSOP...be sure to get together with bigdaddydvo for semi-drunken, late night 3/6 hold-em at the Mirage where idiot dealers will tell you incessantly how they can just 'tell' that online-poker is rigged.

Good times!!

[Jbrochu]

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You'll have to excuse my Stars ingorance as I have no account there yet

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FYI -

If you're thinking about opening a Stars account Now is a good time.