|
|
#21
10-19-2005, 03:53 PM
|
|||
|
|||
Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
but should you call the turn given that? On the turn you gotta figure you're gonna have to
1)pay 2 bets 2)hit a A,9,7,T,or Q to continue and of those none of them are giving you the nuts so they're all partial outs. How many outs do we give each? There are 2 Ace's and 3 of each of the others left. I'd say it would be generous to give each card more than 1/2 of an out each. That would give us 2.5 outs. A clear fold on the turn. Is my thinking correct here? Should I even be thinking of this problem in this way? 
|
|
#23
10-19-2005, 03:58 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
[ QUOTE ]
but should you call the turn given that? On the turn you gotta figure you're gonna have to 1)pay 2 bets 2)hit a A,9,7,T,or Q to continue and of those none of them are giving you the nuts so they're all partial outs. How many outs do we give each? There are 2 Ace's and 3 of each of the others left. I'd say it would be generous to give each card more than 1/2 of an out each. That would give us 2.5 outs. A clear fold on the turn. Is my thinking correct here? Should I even be thinking of this problem in this way? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I went back and edited that all of what I was saying went for the river. It gets tricky on the turn because you have to factor in how often you'll improve and how often he's bluffing. If you think he never bluffs and he wouldn't pull a check-raise with something like AJ/AT or worse, then you're right - it's a clear fold there.
|
|
#24
10-19-2005, 04:36 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: I know Im beat on the turn, but what do i do on the river
The inflection point in this hand is roughly when the pot is offering 10.3:1 (I assumed that the villian has two split, a set or trips). This means that you have to call the turn check/raise when the pot is at least this big...even if you know that you are behind. You then call the river if it improves your hand and you fold when it doesn't. I call it an infection point because there is no way for it to be profitable when the pot is below that critical value and vice versa. Currently the pot is 6.5:1 after the check/raise, so you don't have odds to see the river if you assume that you are always beat here.
So in order to continue you have to give some probability to either semibluff or a worse ace. If he could have neither you have to fold here. Even if he could be on a semibluff you will still have to fold sometimes because it implies that you have to see a showdown. So let's say that you are a 10:1 dog 90% of the time and a 4:1 favorite 10% of the time. Your pot equity here is 16%. EV = .16*9.5bb - 2bb = ~ -0.5bb/100 So in this case you would have to fold eventhough you are giving the pot away to a semi-bluff 10% of the time. These are the types of plays that you should be making against other people. Edit - Call the river in the hand you present.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
