What is wrong with my calculations?

Schizo · #1 07-12-2005, 11:00 PM

10 outs/(46-10) = 0.27777777777777

yet

Board: 7s 2c 9c 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 77.2727 % [ 00.77 00.00 ] { AcKc }
Hand 2: 22.7273 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { 7h7d }

It's off by 4%.

Weatherhead03 · #2 07-12-2005, 11:22 PM

Could be that you used the wrong number in 46...I believe it should be 44...52-2(ak)50-2(77)48-4(7298)=44

bambi · #3 07-13-2005, 12:41 AM

What 10 outs do you have? i get 8

BruceZ · #4 07-13-2005, 12:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What 10 outs do you have? i get 8

[/ QUOTE ]

three 2s + three 8s + three 9s + one 7 = 10.

Schizo · #5 07-13-2005, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Could be that you used the wrong number in 46...I believe it should be 44...52-2(ak)50-2(77)48-4(7298)=44

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes it even worse. 10/34 = 0.29

Another stove:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: Tc 3c 6h 7c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 77.2727 % [ 00.77 00.00 ] { AcQc }
Hand 2: 22.7273 % [ 00.23 00.00 ] { ThTd }

Why is pokerstove so far off?

Schizo · #6 07-13-2005, 02:25 PM

Odd, BruceZ why did you respond to his basic question (which is in almost every poker book) and not mine?

I thought you were the all knowing probablility master!

gergery · #7 07-13-2005, 02:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why is pokerstove so far off?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not
10/44 = 22.72%

BruceZ · #8 07-13-2005, 06:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Odd, BruceZ why did you respond to his basic question (which is in almost every poker book) and not mine?

[/ QUOTE ]

Weatherhead had already responded by the time I saw it, but bambi's question came up while I was reading.

Like others have said, 10 outs divided by 44 unseen cards = 22.7273%, in agreement with Poker Stove. You were subtracting 10 from the denominator. That would give you odds, not probability in percent.

bambi · #9 07-13-2005, 07:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What 10 outs do you have? i get 8

[/ QUOTE ]

three 2s + three 8s + three 9s + one 7 = 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

i knew it wouldnt belong before i embarresed myself on the forums, didnt see the three clubs down.

i guess thats a good way to get no one to raead your posts

KJL · #10 07-13-2005, 11:32 PM

You do not subtract 10 from the demonator. It is 10/44=22.72%