wondering how good i can play? - Page 3

ricochet420 · #21 05-29-2005, 04:11 PM

I think the people calling us liars need to do a little better job on your home games. The only proof I have is my cash and the fact there is a bounty on my head every time we play because I have not lost a dime in our home game over the last one year plus. [ QUOTE ]
Your all watching to much TV Poker!

Im not having this talk unless one of you actually look at the figures your throwing around. Theres no way any tell, read, or cards run could give you an edge to the percent you guys are talking.

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jtr · #22 05-29-2005, 08:16 PM

So if I said I rolled a die 50 times and never hit a six, how would you feel about that? Sceptical? That's about a 1 in 10,000 shot, if you're interested.

Please, slow down and have a think about it, you home-game tough guys. The reason people are not believing your "I always finish in the money" claims is because they understand at least a little bit about probability.

Surely you'd agree that in a NL hold'em tournament with any reasonable blind schedule, you're probably going to be all-in at least once a night with odds of 80:20 in your favour. (Actually that's being incredibly optimistic, but no matter.) So, a few calculations show us that you can only win those 80:20 shots for so long before you lose one and bust out of that night's tournament. If you play a tournament like this once a week for a year, the odds of never busting are too small to even talk about.

Maybe you could get some more credibility if you posted the payout schedules and the number of games you've played with a given structure. I can imagine that if 6 people play a tournament where the top 3 spots pay, for example, and everyone else is loose and crazy, then regular ITM finishes could be assured by simply folding for the first two hours...

ricochet420 · #23 05-29-2005, 08:23 PM

Of course I would be skeptical. Different situation with the home game though pard. If you take a look at the differences you will see there is far more than probability and luck involved in winning tourneys. FWIW our home tourney blind structures are such that it favors the skilled players. Also, I have maybe 1 other "skilled" player in my home game. I HAVE finished ITM 100% in this game. I care NOT to prove it to YOU or anybody else. Call me a liar I don't give a sh1t. It IS possible. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Stew · #24 05-30-2005, 11:41 AM

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This is OBVIOUSLY VERY POSSIBLE. I play with the same group of guys on a regular basis for a little better than a year now. I have placed ITM in this game 100% of the time, yes you read that correct. I am NOT bragging, okay just a little, but it is very possible. I can even say I have NOT come in first place at the most 5-6 times. [ QUOTE ]

You've finished in the top 10-20% of all players 95% of the time? You'll forgive me if I don't believe you?

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Ricochet, you have to understand that the OP said he accomplished this feat every week for the past two years. He stated he finished ITM 95% of the time in a tourney that was held every Thursday. The way I read it is that he finished ITM then 95 times out of approximately 100 or so tourneys (1 a week for 52 weeks, times 2 years).

That, just plain isn't possible, given the fact that he was talking about tourneys with 24 players. If you believe what he said, then I have some cat turds coated in gold that are worth $25 each and I have 200 of them, but I'll sell them to you for 88 cents each.

You, have said that you finsih ITM regularly, you didn't specify what that is. Personally, we have a home tourney that we run every month. It's typically 10 players or less and we have one guy who has finished ITM in the last 15 out of about 30 that we've run. Personally, I've finished ITM in 24. But, the difference in finishing ITM 95/100 with 24 players involved is way more difficult than what you are talking about and what I'm talking about.

It's plain BS and there's no other way around it. He had to have been bad-beated out of least 10 of these if you are looking at it mathematically.

Bulldog · #25 05-30-2005, 02:29 PM

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We have been playing a weekly NLHE tour. for 2 years now. it is usually 15 to 20 players every week.i think that there are at least 5 to 6 good players playing.We have a 100 dollar buy in and pay 3 places. I have finished in the top 3 everytime except about 5% of the time.I have been to horse and won a couple of super satellites. but i am jiust nervous about moving up to 1000 to 2000 buyin tour.i think i am a decent player.any thoughts please on making th jump to higher buyins thanks.

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If everyone else was playing with their cards face up all the time every week, you could not do this.

michiganfan9 · #26 05-30-2005, 07:18 PM

I agree because a few dozen people is ok but a few hundred will really test your skills.

ricochet420 · #27 06-01-2005, 02:39 AM

Point well taken. There is a difference. I guess I should have read a little more carefully. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Socrates · #28 06-01-2005, 12:51 PM

Wait, wait wait. You're telling us that you have a tournament every week and you make the money 95% of the time. Then you tell us that you have an EOY pool that is equal to $4600? Where is the money coming from for this $4600 pot and it was winner take all? I thought you payed 3 places and with 46 you should be paying more. Also, how do you determine who is and is not invited to the winner take all tourney? I mean, can I just show up at the EOY tourney and pay $100 to win 4600 from all of you have put in over the year? I'm calling BS on this one.

BTW, if you want to know what you need to start playing $1000 MTTs, start with $30K - that would be your bankroll for that level.

TM1212 · #29 06-24-2005, 11:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the people calling us liars need to do a little better job on your home games. The only proof I have is my cash and the fact there is a bounty on my head every time we play because I have not lost a dime in our home game over the last one year plus. [ QUOTE ]
Your all watching to much TV Poker!

Im not having this talk unless one of you actually look at the figures your throwing around. Theres no way any tell, read, or cards run could give you an edge to the percent you guys are talking.

[/ QUOTE ]

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ITS NOT POSIBLE, EVEN GETTING YOUR MONEY AHEAD EVERYTIME YOU WILL GET OUTDRAWN AS SOMEONE ELSE SAID, IF YOU PLAY WITH oppenents who kept there CARDS FACE UP you still couldnt get this win rate. ITS SIMPLE MATH!

TM1212 · #30 06-24-2005, 11:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Of course I would be skeptical. Different situation with the home game though pard. If you take a look at the differences you will see there is far more than probability and luck involved in winning tourneys. FWIW our home tourney blind structures are such that it favors the skilled players. Also, I have maybe 1 other "skilled" player in my home game. I HAVE finished ITM 100% in this game. I care NOT to prove it to YOU or anybody else. Call me a liar I don't give a sh1t. It IS possible. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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YOU ARE A LIAR!!!!! ITS PROBILITY, SIMPLE MATH GOD!!!!!! EVEN if everyone started with 500 bb and 4 hour blinds, ITS STILL ALMOST A COMPLETE IMPOSSIBLILITY. You can't always get your chips in where an oppenent is drawing dead, so you have to take situations like 80/20 (which is also very unlikely, much more likely are 3to2 situations, maybe worse. NO MATERR HOW GOOD YOU PLAY, THERE IS LUCK IN POKER, NO MATTER THE BLIND STRUCTURE THERE IS LUCK IN POKER. Do the math man!