Pot Equity Guess

Rickjohn · #1 08-10-2005, 12:07 PM

When UTG+1 bets on the river I figure he has me beat, but I'm not sure. I'm guessing I have about a 10% chance of winning so I call (10% of 17.5 BB is 1.75BB and it costs me 1 BB to call). Is this the right way to think about it?

\Paradise Poker 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.02.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds, SB calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

MrWookie47 · #2 08-10-2005, 12:18 PM

You mostly have the right idea, although 10% might be a bit generous. The pot is 16.5 BB when it gets to you, not 17.5 BB, which happens when SB overcalls behind you. The pot is still pretty big, though, but the presence of so many people yet to act behind you makes calling and folding pretty close.

gharp · #3 08-10-2005, 12:19 PM

Yes, this is a good way to think about it. It's definitely not a spot to fold in. But I also think this is a classic go-for-overcalls situation. It's likely you have a better hand than UTG+1 -- the last card is a complete blank, which completes 0 draws so unless he's been calling along with 22 or something like <shudder> 72o, you're in good shape. I would guess he's connected with the board and is thinking you've whiffed with unimproved overcards.

If you raise you'll likely fold out more than one of the players behind you and a reraise would be unpleasant. So calling looks like the right play here.

jmn32 · #4 08-10-2005, 12:21 PM

Yes, the pot at the river is 16.5BB when it gets to you. Hence you must win it (100 / 17.5) = 5.71% of the time to make the call correct. The situation is a little more complicated than that in this case as there are people to act behind you.

As it goes, without reads (and even with, actually) I think this is a very very easy call. No-one has shown any aggression, and it's difficult to see how the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has helped anyone - the size of the pot makes this an easy call.

The real question is whether to raise the river to drive out the callers behind, but I can't see anyone folding a hand that beats you.

By the way, Pot Equity is not really what we're tlking about at this point, it is simply the chance that you're going to win the hand.

MrWookie47 · #5 08-10-2005, 12:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, Pot Equity is not really what we're tlking about at this point, it is simply the chance that you're going to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, isn't that exactly what pot equity is? The chance you win the hand?

bozlax · #6 08-10-2005, 12:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, Pot Equity is not really what we're tlking about at this point, it is simply the chance that you're going to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot equity, on any street, is the percentage of the time you currently have the best hand, plus the percentage of the time you're going to draw the best hand, times the pot at the time you're looking at it. On the river, the percentage of the time you're going to draw to the best hand is 0, by definition, so your pot equity is the percentage of the time you have the best hand times the pot. On any street you're comparing your equity to the number of bets you have to put in to continue...if your equity is greater, you continue. In this case, for instance, if there were only, say, 7BB in the pot, a call would be incorrect if Hero believes he only has a 10% chance of being best.

And, I agree with all previous posters. You're looking at it correctly, and the call was correct.

bozlax · #7 08-10-2005, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By the way, Pot Equity is not really what we're tlking about at this point, it is simply the chance that you're going to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, isn't that exactly what pot equity is? The chance you win the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, Wook beat me to it. But, I think my snide answer was more complete.

MrWookie47 · #8 08-10-2005, 12:37 PM

Actually, you forgot to subtract the percentage of the time your opponents draw out on you. You were more polite, but "the chance that you win the hand" is actually a little more complete.

I guess I'll add a little more, too, to build on what you said. Bozlax is correct when he said that if your equity in the pot is greater than what it costs to continue, you play on. Additionally, if your equity percentage is greater than your fair share equity (one hundred divided by the # of players in the hand), then you should bet and raise for value.

jmn32 · #9 08-10-2005, 12:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By the way, Pot Equity is not really what we're tlking about at this point, it is simply the chance that you're going to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, isn't that exactly what pot equity is? The chance you win the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Err... Yes, I suppose it is. For some reason, I don't think of it as Pot Equity at the river - I tend to think of it in that way only when there are cards still to come. Obviously muddled it all up in my head.

deception5 · #10 08-10-2005, 12:53 PM

You have to call here. Clear fold if it's raised behind you.