Facing an Impending Trifecta ... (AK)

W. Deranged · #1 08-11-2005, 09:41 AM

Live 10/20, and, you guessed it, a half kill

The villain in question is like the one guy at the table I don't have any strong opinions on. He is very quiet. Reasonably tight but I don't necessarily think he's a great player. Has done absolutely nothing to catch my attention at this point.

We are playing 10-handed at this point and this is not a kill game.

Deranged is in MP with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Random dude is UTG.

Random Dude raises, several folds, Deranged three-bets, a handful of further folds, Random Dude calls.

Flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Random dude checks, Deranged bets, Random dude raises, Deranged calls.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Random dude checks, Deranged bets, Random dude raises ...

What is our line from here on out?

As an interesting challenge, I encourage anyone to project a number for what our actual equity is in this pot at this point.

paperboyNC · #2 08-11-2005, 10:04 AM

A half-kill means 15/30?

His most likely hand is A9, with 44, 66 and 99 being possibilities.

However, if he is at all a creative player, he could have check-raised the flop with overs (AK, AQ, AJ, AT). If he has a set, then his check-raise on the turn is brilliant.

Often though, players will check again once they improve again. That's why A9 seems likely.

Against a set you're drawing dead. Against A9, you have 3 outs. Against AQ, AJ, AT, you are a 14-1 favorite.

brettbrettr · #3 08-11-2005, 10:06 AM

Think he raises A9 utg? 99 looks possible I guess...

Entity · #4 08-11-2005, 10:08 AM

Fold and flash him your Ace so he can flash you 99. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I call down against this online but there really isn't much for him to be checkraising you with on the flop and the turn, and you aren't getting checkraised on the flop by AJ-AK very often at all live, so I really think this might be a fold.

Rob

paperboyNC · #5 08-11-2005, 10:15 AM

I'd call down.

Derek in NYC · #6 08-11-2005, 10:20 AM

You have to just call it down against an unknown. Hard to put villain on a hand here. I think he could have anything from an overpair, to a set of aces, to AK.

JTrout · #7 08-11-2005, 10:24 AM

Would RandomDude check/raise the flop with top set? or any set? Probably not.

Would RandomDude check/raise the flop with overcards? Possibly.

I think there is a good probability that he has either AK or AQ.
But then again I like to put my opponent of something I could beat! (or tie [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

I call down.

W. Deranged · #8 08-11-2005, 10:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Would RandomDude check/raise the flop with top set? or any set? Probably not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not?

BigEndian · #9 08-11-2005, 10:25 AM

You don't continue the action as it happened, but I assume you called and he checked the river?

I think it's likely going to be a chop. But if checked to on the river and raised you're calling. If he hs AK or AA I mark him down as overly tricky and not very good at getting full value out of hands.

- Jim

JTrout · #10 08-11-2005, 10:38 AM

I preface this by saying I play mostly online. (2/4 -5/10).

But most of the opponents I've faced would wait till the turn to pop their set. (When I say most, I mean >50%, but less than 80%).
So I'm not saying that he wouldn't, or shouldn't, just that he probably didn't.

Add to that the nature of this board. There are no drawing hands for an utg pre-flop raiser.
Add to that the likelihood of him having raised with the lower pairs.
And I think the mostl likely holding for him is AK or AQ.