Facing an Impending Trifecta ... (AK)

[jskills]

Is there anything to do but call down at this point?

You lose to AA. Although you'd probably see the flop capped if he had it, his multiple check raises seem to represent it anyway. Or maybe 99? I always have a hard time simply putting someone on a set. You could also be splitting the pot vs AK or up against AQ that wants you to go away. After the turn C/R, I'm just trying to find out as cheaply as possible.

[PTjvs]

Very easy call down. Most likely villian holdings here are 99, AA & AK/AQ, maybe even AJ. Villian could have easily assumed the all rag flop missed you & checkraised a big A, then decided to checkraise again when he made his hand on the turn. Id say you are good here at least 40% of the time.

jvs

[mlb3zr]

I'd call down, expecting to see a big A often enough to make it profitable. He could have 99, but I would expect a cap PF w AA, so I'm not quite as concerned about that.

[meep_42]

AQ, AK, 99, AA are the only hands I can put him on, given the "tight and unimaginitive" read. But, that's probably too narrow.

Our equity against that range is 95%, 50%, and 0%, weighted:

99 - 3 combos * 0 = 0
AA - 1 combo * 0 = 0
AQ - 8 combos * .95 = 7.6
AK - 6 combos * .5 = 3.0
---
10.6/18 = .589, which would seem to indicate a raise. However, I don't think AQ is that likely, so if we fudge that down to 6 combinations, we have .543 equity still.

But, AQ just doesn't feel right here -- and I can't shake the feeling that you're behind a set.

Still, getting 8.75:2 on a calldown... with no cards that can improve you enough to raise the river if bet at...

Blech.

-d

[Derek in NYC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would RandomDude check/raise the flop with top set? or any set? Probably not.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why not?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that a c/r on the flop is unlikely with a set. Against the preflop three-bettor (you), this board is not threatening. You have some very improbable str8 draws, but it is rainbow.

Also, live players in my limited experience, tend to like to slowplay sets more than online, where I agree that many (myself included), adhere to the maxim that "fastplay is the new slowplay."

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would RandomDude check/raise the flop with top set? or any set? Probably not.



[/ QUOTE ]

Why not?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that a c/r on the flop is unlikely with a set. Against the preflop three-bettor (you), this board is not threatening. You have some very improbable str8 draws, but it is rainbow.

Also, live players in my limited experience, tend to like to slowplay sets more than online, where I agree that many (myself included), adhere to the maxim that "fastplay is the new slowplay."

[/ QUOTE ]

Many live players love slowplaying. I think there is a psychological component involved in "tricking" or "trapping" your opponent. Players love the feeling of making a raise or turning over a hand their opponent wasn't expecting and seeing the reaction, it would seem.

[shant]

Seems like a good time to find out what he's catching your attention with. I call it down.

[Derek in NYC]

We're in violent agreement, then. Why did you ask your question, then, when the guy said no set likely on the flop given the c/r?

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
We're in violent agreement, then. Why did you ask your question, then, when the guy said no set likely on the flop given the c/r?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because I'm annoying...

Honestly, though, I asked it because I think it's important that concepts like that be justified, even if they're somewhat straightforward. I'm a stickler for reasoning.