9/18 hand: What Would Villain Do?

private joker · #1 08-25-2005, 03:54 PM

Great Commerce 9/18 table. All players are horrible, except the guy in seat 4, Ellix Powers, who is playing tight-aggressive and spending most of the night folding and watching "Tombstone" on his portable DVD player. He gets mad every single time he's in a hand, whether he wins it or not.

Anyway, I'll present this hand from Villain's point of view because I think the river is interesting.

Loose, bad MP2 open-limps. Villain limps in MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Ellix folds in the CO. Button folds, I complete in the SB with XX.

BB checks, 4 to the flop. Flop comes K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. It checks around.

Turn is 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I bet, BB folds, MP2 calls, Villain calls.

3 to the river for 5BBs. River is T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I bet, MP2 folds, Villain raises, I 3-bet...

What should Villain do? What do I have?

Derek in NYC · #2 08-25-2005, 04:03 PM

Villain should cap it, and it doesnt matter what you have. He holds the second nut hand, if you happen to have the nuts, then so be it. A completing player from the SB has a smaller flush much more often than he has the nuts.

peterchi · #3 08-25-2005, 04:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
except the guy in seat 4, Ellix Powers

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this for real? That's f'in sweet.

I'm gonna risk being way too narrow and say that you have Axs, since you didn't come to life until the 2nd spade hit, and also since you aren't playing against TT.

If I were villain, I would:
1) Raise pre-flop
Given that I didn't, I would then
2) Bet the flop
Given that I didn't...
3) Fold the turn
And once again, given that...
4) Call the 3-bet

shant · #4 08-25-2005, 04:16 PM

You would've raised preflop with TT. You're not checking 55 or 66 on the flop, or KT. I doubt you complete 34s in the 1/3 structure, so that's out. You bet the turn so you either have 22 or a flush. You're not completing many combos of spades in the 1/3 structure either, and the 9,T,Q, and K are out.

The lowest possible flush I see you having is 78s, which if you had would've been a flop bet also. I can't see you completing J8s, so now that leaves the Axs and 22.

I think it's more likely you have the nuts here, so he should call.

meep_42 · #5 08-25-2005, 04:18 PM

You're folding the turn 4-1 with a 2nd nut draw that is about 4-1 to come in, plus overcards which may be good some small percentage of the time? What am I missing?

I think you'd bet the flop with 34 a PP or K with no pf raiser, but it's still much more likely you have a smaller flush. Though, I don't know that you can 3-bet the river without a flush, and a good one at that, since the villain is pretty much telling you he has one.

I think villain should 3-bet, but i'm not very happy about it.

-d

meep_42 · #6 08-25-2005, 04:21 PM

Good point, I hadn't looked at which spades (besides the KQ) were out -- J8 and worse are probably a fold pf.

Excellent post.

-d

peterchi · #7 08-25-2005, 04:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're folding the turn 4-1 with a 2nd nut draw that is about 4-1 to come in, plus overcards which may be good some small percentage of the time? What am I missing?

[/ QUOTE ]
Oops, thought the pot was even smaller. yeah.

[ QUOTE ]

I think villain should 4-bet(?), but i'm not very happy about it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I also wasn't thinking of villain as having the second nuts, so now I'm maybe thinking my call is weak. However, cap is off, right? I really don't think I want 5 bets going in here, against Private. So I could be convinced either way...

peterchi · #8 08-25-2005, 04:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Good point, I hadn't looked at which spades (besides the KQ) were out -- J8 and worse are probably a fold pf.

Excellent post.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. I agree.

Although I might complete with J8s. Unless it's a 1/3 blind structure? Then maybe not.

Derek in NYC · #9 08-25-2005, 04:30 PM

Come on, you are overthinking this. From villain's perspective in a 9/18 game, a ton of hands are going to be completed from the SB. Im not even sure the 3-bet on the river from Joker says "flush" more than 75% of the time against your typical casino monkey. Maybe it seems hard on 2p2 when you know Joker is the player, but I think this is a very easy cap against a typical casino player who you have a 2-3 hour read on.

shant · #10 08-25-2005, 04:34 PM

Heh, dude I'm in no way saying that the villain in this hand would ever think this much into it. This is the Commerce 9/18, I'm surprised they remember to get up to take a piss. I interpreted the original post as a hand reading exercise against Joker. In that case, if I was the villain, I would call.