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#2
03-21-2005, 07:32 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
It depends on how likely they are to call your various sized bets. If they will call any bet at all, you should bet as much as you possible can. Otherwise, you need more info about their liklihood of calling the different sized bets.
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#3
03-21-2005, 07:47 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
THis doesnt have anything to do with players, just the money value...
If i have a 70% chance to win 100 bucks, and my buddy has a 30% chance of winning 100 bucks...You are simply just playing the odds Just prentend this has nothing to do with cards.. What would the wager be? What should I bet?
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#4
03-21-2005, 08:07 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
Maybe i'll re word this better...
If my hand has a 30% chance of losing, and theres a 100 dollar pot, what should I bet without overbetting my chances... If his hand has a 70% chance of losing, how much can he call on a 100 dollar pot, without overcalling his chances?
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#5
03-21-2005, 08:49 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
I would look at this from your opponents viewpoint. If he knows that he has a 30% chance of winning if he hits his outs than he needs odds of 2.33 on the next card to play. If you bet 75 dollars that will give him exactly 2.33 pott odds giving him the right odds to call. If you bet the pot that would give him odds of 2 to 1 to call. Ignoring implied odds he would be making a mistake if he made this call. I would bet as high a number above 75 that you think he will call.
Cobra
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#6
03-21-2005, 09:31 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
[ QUOTE ]
I would bet as high a number above 75 that you think he will call. [/ QUOTE ] Again, as Cobra notes and as I noted, any answer to your question will involve what you think your opponent will call. You are incorrect to say that this does not matter.
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#7
03-21-2005, 10:19 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
OK, what if you were on a draw... you have a 30% chance to hit your draw... THe pot is 100 bucks...
What is the highest amount you should pay, to win a pot of 100 bucks, with a 30% chance of winning, without comming out a loser in the long run? Isn't 30 bucks the right answer?
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#8
03-21-2005, 10:30 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
[ QUOTE ]
OK, what if you were on a draw... you have a 30% chance to hit your draw... THe pot is 100 bucks... What is the highest amount you should pay, to win a pot of 100 bucks, with a 30% chance of winning, without comming out a loser in the long run? Isn't 30 bucks the right answer? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, it is, but only in the case where that would put you all in. EDIT: woops. actually, even this is not true. the pot is laying 100:30, which you means you need to be good 30/130 = 23% of the time when it puts you all in. If it doesn't put you all in, you have to consider the chance that your opponent makes a very large bet on a later street. Or, if you're playing against a passive oppoenent, you could a call for more than $30 if you were fairly sure he would pay you off when you hit your draw (implied odds). In real situations, you usually cannot reduce your decision to a pure math problem -- instead, you have to incorporate fuzzy variables like opponent reads.
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#9
03-21-2005, 10:33 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
Anyways, calling 70 bucks on a draw only to win 100 bucks doesnt sound right to me... So , i really don't know how betting 70 on a 100 dollar pot can give anyone odds to call anything.
30 bucks, sounds a little bit more realistic as you are investing 30 bucks, to win 70 bucks, with a 30% chance to win... Is there something wrong with this logic?
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#10
03-21-2005, 10:42 PM
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Re: How much should i bet?
[ QUOTE ]
Anyways, calling 70 bucks on a draw only to win 100 bucks doesnt sound right to me... So , i really don't know how betting 70 on a 100 dollar pot can give anyone odds to call anything. 30 bucks, sounds a little bit more realistic as you are investing 30 bucks, to win 70 bucks, with a 30% chance to win... Is there something wrong with this logic? [/ QUOTE ] yes. it all depends on how good your draw is. you are correct that it is rare to have a draw with enough outs to cover 70:100 bet, but it is not impossible. also, please note the correction in my last post.
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