Should you ever "survive" through the bubble period?

Pulplife · #1 03-19-2005, 04:11 PM

I know that in general this is extremely poor play.

Today, I questioned myself after getting knock out 3 players from the money (48th of 428). BTW, this is seriously not a bad beat post!

I was sitting at about 38th and short stacked (~16000, BB of 1500/3000). There were 10 players in worse shape than me when I got 66's. I was all-in agaist AKo, K hit the river.

Was it the best play??? I was so crippled that even if I doubled up, I'd still be short.

The reason I'm asking this is that being so crippled, maybe it would have been better to wait three minutes (thats how long it took for the others to get knocked out) and take away a little $ for the 3+ hours of my time.

I appreciate any thoughts you have on this.

Thanks,

Pulp

Msogard · #2 03-19-2005, 04:15 PM

I would probably take into account how deep the big stacks in the tournament were, and how much money you'd make by waiting/winning.

Pulplife · #3 03-19-2005, 04:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would probably take into account how deep the big stacks in the tournament were, and how much money you'd make by waiting/winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's part of my confusion. It was a 10+1 rebuy/add-on. I had $31 invested, 45th only paid $63. First paid ~$4000.

I think I made the right move, but have WAY less experience in these situations than most of the regular posters.

Msogard · #4 03-19-2005, 04:27 PM

I'd push here if it was folded to me in late position. If it wasn't the bubble I'd push from any spot in an un-raised pot. You didn't mention where you were sitting and how deep the big stacks were. If there are players with a million chips I'd fold my way into the money first.

Pulplife · #5 03-19-2005, 04:35 PM

Sorry, forgot to mention that top 10 stacks ranged from ~140000 to ~80000.

CardSharpCook · #6 03-19-2005, 04:47 PM

There comes a point in almost every tournement when you realize you are probably not gonna win it. These are the times when reason should outweigh hope. That it was "only" $65 should not affect your play. What should affect your play is that the difference between 45 and tenth is probably about 50%. But the step from 0 to $65 is huge. Play wisely. Play with reason. Do not lose yourself in hope.

Let me give you two recent examples of peculiar bubble play.
both come from last nights Party Friday Special:
1. I have KQ and an avg stack MP3. 82 players left, 80 get 1.5X their buy-in back. I make a standard 3X raise which costs about 20% of my stack. The BB calls - he has my covered by double. Flop is king high - K84. I bet it - 30% of my stack, he calls. Turn is another undercard, lets say it was a 7 that also put 2 spades on the board. I have very little clue as to what he has. I'm thinking maybe a king with a worse kicker, (maybe AK), maybe trips, maybe ANYTHING. But I really don't want him drawing, so I pull the trigger. Had to be the most foolish move of the tourney. He calls. While the "stupid cook" thoughts mingle with that horrible feeling, I see he has A4o. What board combination did I miss? How has he beat me? Oh, wait, he has five outs....

2nd hand. Boy-o with 8k in the SB has the action folded to him. blinds 400/800. Now there are 81 players left, 80 get paid. BB has him covered by more than double. He makes it 2K. BB knows the bubble situation and pushes back all-in. The guy thinks FOREVER! he finally calls. Big slick suited. against Q4off. A J,T,9,and 8 hit, and the SB goes home with $0.00. Why this brilliant SB player didn't go all-in from the start we'll never know. Obviously from the amount of time he had to think about it, he wasn't trapping here.

Anyway, Take what you will from these hands.

CSC

tiger7210 · #7 03-19-2005, 05:19 PM

1st of all a dbl up does help you a lot putting you back at 10x BB. The question here is when did you push. I would only open push here from LP if folded to me. I certainly would fold this if I know I'm getting called this close to the money.

Pulplife · #8 03-19-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1st of all a dbl up does help you a lot putting you back at 10x BB. The question here is when did you push. I would only open push here from LP if folded to me. I certainly would fold this if I know I'm getting called this close to the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I was wandering and the type of response I was hoping to get on this post.

BTW, I was 4 away from button, folded to me, limped in [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img], CO raises all in.

willie · #9 03-19-2005, 06:53 PM

i don't that there are ANY absolutes in poker, similar to math, there are several ways to "solving" a problem

Is it ever correct to survive the bubble, yeah, i can think of certain situations where it is. If you're very shortstacked and doubling up will be almost meaningless, then hold on and attempt to sneak in to at least recoup your investment.

knowing that many mtt players are playing survival poker on the bubble will usually allow you to pick up 2 sets of blinds an orbit if you have a healthy enough stack to bully with- this will pay for an orbit or 2 when you reach the money and people begin to push and pray- you will be able to absorb some small stacks if you pick up a hand in this period and can propel yourself deeper into the money....

i'm rambling, but there are definite times when you should try to survive. more often than not- you should not be playing to survive the bubble though. The money is up top and giving yourself the chance to get to the top is key, folding in and being short isn't typically the best way to achieve that goal.

----and yes i've gone broke on the bubble before kk vs kj offsuit big stack bully (121, 120 paid- that's my bad beat contribution)

elscorcho768 · #10 03-20-2005, 01:09 AM

It is also important to note that once everyone makes the money, often players will get very loose. you actually would have a better chance accumulating chips by opting to survive the bubble and then pushing your shortstack against someone who very well may have a mediocre hand, or at least a worse hand then if you pushed before the bubble.