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#21
11-15-2005, 01:19 AM
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Re: Totals analysis MNF
[ QUOTE ]
I just slept through the last half-hour. Wow. This Akers FG attempt kills the $200 win and doesn't help me cover -3 either. [/ QUOTE ] Congratulations. This was a good middle (41 occurs about 4% of the time). 
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#22
11-15-2005, 01:20 AM
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Re: Totals analysis MNF
[ QUOTE ]
Wow great bet. Congrats man [/ QUOTE ] Thanks y'all. If it makes you feel better, I lost $85 on Philly -3.
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#25
11-15-2005, 05:10 AM
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Re: Totals analysis MNF
funny... i had eagles -3
But after i watched the cowboys run back the int for a td, i was actually thinking "holy @#$% sygamel is the man!".... then it dawned on me that my bet was screwed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. on a side note: im done with sports betting.. definatly -EV for me (although i must say that it was fun [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])
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#26
11-15-2005, 08:54 AM
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Re: Totals analysis MNF
[ QUOTE ]
funny... i had eagles -3 But after i watched the cowboys run back the int for a td, i was actually thinking "holy @#$% sygamel is the man!".... then it dawned on me that my bet was screwed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]. on a side note: im done with sports betting.. definatly -EV for me (although i must say that it was fun [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]) [/ QUOTE ] Thanks. The odds were slim that it would hit, I just got lucky.
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#27
11-15-2005, 03:01 PM
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\"Soft Middle\"
Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out?
Let me see how this works If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73 If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75 If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25 So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right? Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet? And congrats on the win!
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#28
11-15-2005, 03:06 PM
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Re: \"Soft Middle\"
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out? Let me see how this works If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73 If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75 If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25 So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right? Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet? And congrats on the win! [/ QUOTE ] It depends on the total. 41 is a common total in football - occurring in about 4.4% of all games. He needed less than 3% for it to be profitable. Also, a middle is never the best bet EV-wise. If a profitable middle exists, one of the two sides has to be more +EV than the other.
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#29
11-15-2005, 03:16 PM
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Re: \"Soft Middle\"
[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out? Let me see how this works If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73 If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75 If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25 So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right? Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet? And congrats on the win! [/ QUOTE ] Thanks...I estimated the ~2.6% cost was lower than the odds of 41 hitting so I took it.
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#30
11-15-2005, 03:16 PM
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Re: \"Soft Middle\"
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Okay, I'm a noob and this the first I've seen of this. Can someone please explain this to me numbers-wise how it works out? Let me see how this works If the total was under 41, you'd win $97.27 and lose $100, for a net loss of $2.73 If the total was over 41, you'd win $104.25 and lose $107, for a net loss of $2.75 If the total was exactly 41, you'd win $104.25 and push on the other bet for a net win of $104.25 So, the reason for middling this is a low risk ($2.75 at most), high reward longshot bet, right? Should I be middling or soft middling every chance I can get, even on games I would not normally bet? And congrats on the win! [/ QUOTE ] It depends on the total. 41 is a common total in football - occurring in about 4.4% of all games. He needed less than 3% for it to be profitable. Also, a middle is never the best bet EV-wise. If a profitable middle exists, one of the two sides has to be more +EV than the other. [/ QUOTE ] So "common totals" also apply to point spreads like 3 and 7 (and 10) right? I can soft middle a game with a spread of 3 and 2.5 for example? And where can I find common totals that should be middled? If the middle isn't the best bet, it does allow for low-risk/high reward betting (though at a longshot), right? I'm just trying to understand WHY he made this bet since it certainly was a longshot to come through. Anyways, to summarize what I think you said, look for middle or soft middle opportunities if it lands on common numbers.
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