Totals analysis MNF

I placed 2 wagers a few mins ago:

Over 40.5 $100 to win $104.25 (Matchbook)
Under 41 $107 to win $97.27 (Bowmans)

Risking $2.74 to win $104.25 if 41 hits. 41, I believe, is a fairly common number. However, I don't know how often it hits when the wagerable total is in the vicinity of 41. Are the chances at or higher than my risk here of 2.62%? I gathered from Pinny's buy/sell line prices that it's significantly higher than this.