Another SS post....Micro views rock!

Here's another post from SS that probably didn't get the attention it deserved.

Just like the other one I posted the other day, B WEBB (SS poster) and I agreed but the rest had different views.

I even disagreed with Entity [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] .
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666"> 2 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666"> 1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666"> 1 fold</font>, <font color="red"> SB raises </font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red"> UTG+1 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
<font color="red"> SB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="red"> UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666"> MP2 folds </font>, Hero calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (12 BB) J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red"> UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666"> UTG folds</font>.

River: (15 BB) Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, <font color="red"> UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666"> SB folds </font>.

Final Pot: 17 BB

What's are your thoughts people?

Once again, I'll post my views after a few responses.

I'd probably play it the same way, whether or not it's right.

Is pre-flop a fold, perhaps? Two bets coming back with a hand that is probably dominated by something like AQ, or QQ+. The only reason I can see to play this hand is for straight and flush value. I'd probably play it, but is that really enough here?

I'd probably call the river, but I think UTG+1 has a big pair. The only other thing I can see is a vastly overplayed AK.

[milesdyson]

he should have raised preflop on his own. otherwise he played it right. the river call is probably -EV, but you never know without reads (especially after seeing him limp reraise). what did you disagree with?

I was going to mention the possibility of a raise before the flop. Brings me to a question I have regarding that: in general, how many people do you want in before you raise with speculative hands like 10-9, J-10, and Q-10 suited?

[MadMat]

I'd love one of you to explain why this is right! i really can't see it!

Assuming a sensible 3-betting range (AA-QQ + AKs) from UTG+1 (even with the L-RR) our overcard outs are almost completely dead, and on the flop all we have is b/door flush and straight outs, 2.5 - 3 outs at most! Even with the 10:1 we are getting there it's not enough to call.

Mat

[Guruman]

--blind response--

I think I find a fold on the flop, since it looks like spiking a Q or T won't do me any good.

I also fold the river for the same reason.

[MrWookie47]

That's an awfully tight 3betting range.

I am having trouble justifying the flop call. We are getting 9:1 (possibly worse since there is a chance that the small blind might take it upstairs).

I find it hard to believe that our Q or T outs for top pair are good ... I would give them like, .25 outs each and I think .25 is generous. All I see are 2 runner runner draws .. giving them 1.5 outs each we have 3 maaaybe 3.5 outs (maybe less since some of the other players will almost always have some of our outs) and it seems like we need 14:1 odds to justify this call. I guess one could justify making these up in implied odds since UTG+1 isn't giving up his hand any time soon.

[tyler_cracker]

See, this kind of [censored] is the reason i quit trying to participate in SS.

Ok, let's work it backwards:

river: Both the preflop raisers are still hanging around. You are behind AA-JJ, AQ, KQ, QJ, and a few other wonky things. You are ahead of TT, AK, and suited garbage if that's what the limp/reraise means. I don't think you're good anywhere near 1/17 times, especially with SB left to act behind you. Isn't raising better than calling here because you do not want an overcall?

turn: Hooray, we hit the part of our backdoor straight that we wanted so that when an 8 comes we take all the money. Getting 13:1 this is a straightforward call.

flop: The action sure looks like someone has an overpair. If that overpair is TT/JJ *and* the other guy doesn't have us dominated with AQ/AT/KQ/KT, we have 3 outs for our Q. I think it's generous to give us 1 out for our overcards here.

We have 4 outs that give us a 1-card straight, which will either kill any action we might get, cause us to chop, or maybe cause us to lose to JT. But let's call it 4 outs for now. We can add say .5 outs for when we hit the 8 *and* the J (which gives us the nut straight).

Lastly, we have a BDFD for 1.5, and a total of 7 outs. Getting 19:2==9.5:1 (but with the possibility SB will 3-bet behind us), it looks like this is indeed a peel.

preflop: I like a raise for value after all those limpers to buy the button. Once it's 2 more back to us, that sucks, but we have a hand that plays well multiway and the pot is big, so let's go.

In the heat of battle, i would certainly fold somewhere (probably the flop). Having done all this typing, though, it looks like the hand is a lot less marginal than i thought initially, except i still find a fold on the river.

[Shillx]

Rob is correct on this one. Well played postflop. The pot is just too big to fold with the amount of equity we have.